Two title fights headline UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, Oct. 24, and I'm backing some familiar faces to handle business.
Alexander Volkanovski is being undervalued again, Petr Yan has already shown us how to dismantle Merab Dvalishvili, and Alexander Volkov gets another chance to remind everyone just how good he is.
I'm also backing one of the UFC's most dangerous young finishers to make quick work of his opponent.
Let's get into my UFC 333 predictions and best bets!
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs Evloev |
Volkanovski to win 51% |
| Yan vs Dvalishvili |
Yan to win 58% |
| Volkov vs Kuniev |
Volkov to win 54% |
| Yakhyaev vs Krylov |
Yakhyaev to win in R1 55% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
UFC 333 best bets
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev pick: Volkanovski to win
Alexander Volkanovski is really getting slept on again.
At 51% on Kalshi, we're barely giving an all-time great the edge against Movsar Evloev. I'm happy to take advantage.
Evloev is undefeated and deserves his shot, but he isn't blowing anyone away. All 10 of his UFC wins have come by decision, including unanimous 29-28 scorecards against Arnold Allen and Aljamain Sterling. Those are quality wins, but he had to grind out rounds to earn them.
I expect Volkanovski's striking, defensive grappling, and fight IQ to make that job considerably harder.
I love the champion's jab, combinations, feints, and experience over five rounds. His significant striking output also comfortably exceeds Evloev's, and I expect Volk to land the cleaner, more damaging shots on the feet.
We aren't digging through ancient footage to make this case, either. Volkanovski comfortably handled the UFC's golden boy, Diego Lopes, in each of his last two fights.
And I haven't forgotten his first fight against Islam Makhachev. Volk moved up a division, defended five of nine takedown attempts, and remained competitive against an elite grappler. Evloev will have to earn every position.
Volkanovski by decision at 32% is also an excellent method-of-victory option for anyone chasing a bigger payout.
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Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili pick: Yan to win
I think Petr Yan solved Merab Dvalishvili in their second fight, and 58% is a price I'll gladly take to back him again.
Merab brought his usual ridiculous pace. Yan brought answers.
He defended 27 of 29 takedown attempts, then added insult to injury by taking Merab down on five of nine attempts himself. Merab couldn't reliably impose his wrestling, and Yan repeatedly made him pay for coming forward.
The body work was especially nasty. Yan hurt him repeatedly, disrupted his pressure, and showed how much damage a cleaner, more accurate striker can do against that relentless approach.
I don't expect Merab to suddenly reinvent himself for the trilogy. His pressure and conditioning remain dangerous, but I don't see his punching power forcing Yan to abandon a game plan that worked so well.
Yan has already shown he can defend the takedowns, win wrestling exchanges, and punish Merab's entries. Yan by KO/TKO/DQ at 19% could also be worth the risk, considering how badly he hurt Merab in the rematch.
Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev pick: Volkov to win
Alexander Volkov has spent years fighting the heavyweight division's best. At 54% against Rizvan Kuniev, I'm backing his experience and superior striking.
His only defeat since March 2022 came in that split decision against Ciryl Gane, and I still think he got robbed. That loss looks considerably different when you remember how the fight actually played out.
Volkov brings a four-inch reach advantage into this matchup, giving him room to work behind his jab and long kicks. I expect him to make Kuniev work just to get into punching range.
If Kuniev can't consistently crowd Volkov and force clinch exchanges, I favor the veteran to pick him apart from distance.
Give me Volkov to handle business at a very reasonable price and hopefully earn himself another shot at the heavyweight title.
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov pick: Yakhyaev to win in Round 1
Excellent matchmaking. Terrible fight to schedule a bathroom break around.
I expect all gas, no brakes when Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev meets Nikita Krylov.
Yakhyaev is 10-0 with eight first-round finishes. His three UFC wins and Contender Series victory all came inside the opening three minutes of Round 1. He's wasting absolutely nobody's time.
Krylov is familiar with early exits, too. Eleven of his 22 UFC fights have ended in Round 1, and he's been stopped in the opening round seven times professionally.
He's also coming off KO/TKO losses in three of his last four appearances, including a jaw-injury stoppage against Robert Whittaker in his most recent fight.
Against a dangerous finisher nine years younger, this is an awful bounce-back spot for Krylov, whose career could be starting to wind down.
I'm backing Yakhyaev to make another quick night of it.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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