We've got a pick 'em on our hands in this flyweight showdown, but I see knockout value in my Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov predictions for UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi.
Below, I'll break down the latest UFC odds and dish out my free picks for Saturday, Oct. 24.
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov predictions for UFC 333
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Ramazan Temirov | 51% |
| Top pick: Fight to NOT go the distance | 63% |
| Prop: Temirov by KO/TKO/DQ | 31% |
| Combo | 6.22x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov: Ramazan Temirov (51% Probability)
I see this fight going one of two ways: either Ramazan Temirov finds a knockout blow before he gasses out, or Lone'er Kavanagh finds a way to avoid danger and take it to the ground.
Kavanagh may have the speed and technique advantage, but he has not been great at stepping out of the way of trouble in his UFC career. He's just over a year removed from a KO loss to Charles Johnson, while he owns a Significant Strike Defence of just 53% through five UFC fights.
Temirov is known to gas out, but I think he finds Kavanagh's chin before that happens.
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov top pick: Fight to NOT go the distance (63% Probability)
Flyweights aren't necessarily known for their knockout power, but both fighters are more than capable of ending this one early.
Temirov is especially dangerous and willing to throw with reckless abandon. He has 12 knockouts in 23 professional bouts, including six in his last seven, while 14 of his fights have ended before the final bell.
Kavanagh has seen seven of his 12 fights end inside the distance and was finished in both of his UFC losses.
COVERS INTEL: Kavanagh has been outstruck in the first round in three of his last four fights, which is where Temirov will be the most dangerous.Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov prop: Temirov by KO/TKO/DQ (31% Probability)
Those on the side of Kavanagh will cite his speed and footwork advantage, but I don't think he uses it particularly well to avoid danger. Kavanagh absorbs nearly four significant strikes per minute, and Temirov only needs to land one to put him out.
Temirov possesses elite power and already ranks among the flyweight leaders in knockdowns (5) in just three UFC fights. He's fresh off a first-round knockout over Steve Erceg in July, and Erceg had been finished only once prior in 18 fights.
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov combo
Temirov is known to gas out in the third round, so if he does secure a finish, it will almost certainly come within the first 10 minutes.
Both fighters like to come out swinging, but Temirov is more likely to get the better of those exchanges.
Six of Temirov's last seven fights have ended via first-round KO, and he's been finishing opponents who aren't necessarily easy to knock out.
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Lone'er Kavanagh | Ramazan Temirov |
| To win outright | 51% | 51% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 20% | 31% |
| To win by decision | 28% | 15% |
| To win by submission | 7% | 5% |
| Fight to go the distance | Yes 44% |
No 63% |
Odds as of 10-22.
This is a true pick 'em, but each fighter has a different path to victory.
Temirov's best chance is via knockout (31%), while Kavanagh is favored to win by decision (28%).
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Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov tale of the tape
| Lone'er Kavanagh | Ramazan Temirov | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 67 inches | Reach | 63 inches |
| 10-2-0 | Record | 20-3-0 |
| 4 | Wins by KO | 12 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Kavanagh holds a two-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage, but Temirov possesses more power and poses a greater knockout threat.
Both men recently faced Charles Johnson; Kavanagh was knocked out, while Temirov earned a decision victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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