Two up-and-comers in the featherweight division go toe-to-toe at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi as Aaron Pico enters as a 56% favorite against Losene Keita.
My Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita predictions back the underdog, who will have a speed advantage on the feet against an opponent with a questionable chin.
Check out the latest UFC odds and my free picks for UFC 333 on Saturday, Oct. 24.
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita predictions for UFC 333
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Losene Keita | 44% |
| Top pick: Fight to NOT go to the distance | 67% |
| Prop: Keita by KO/TKO/DQ | 31% |
| Combo | 5.59x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita: Losene Keita (44% Probability)
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita may look like a traditional grappler vs. striker matchup on paper, but both fighters are more than willing to stand and trade.
Pico isn't afraid to engage in chaotic exchanges, but he'll be up against a slightly taller, longer opponent with legitimate one-punch knockout power.
With takedowns unlikely to come easy, I expect Keita to get the better of Pico on the feet.
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita top pick: Fight to NOT go the distance (67% Probability)
This fight looks like it's set up to be a car crash between an immovable object and an unstoppable force.
Pico is a hardheaded warrior who won't back down, even if he's overmatched on the feet. He earned a decision win over Patricio Pitbull last time out, but the 38-year-old left Pico bloodied after just one round. Now imagine what a bigger, more dynamic striker like Keita could do.
Keita has 11 knockout wins (and one KO loss) in 19 professional bouts, while 16 of Pico's 19 fights have ended before the final bell.
COVERS INTEL: Pico's Significant Strike Defence is just 45%, much lower than Keita's (64%) and most of the featherweight division.Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita prop: Keita by KO/TKO/DQ (32% Probability)
Keita has earned a KO in 11 of his last 13 wins, and he'll have an easy target to hit in Pico.
Pico is only 30 years old, but there are already questions about his durability. He's been knocked out four times since 2019, and is just a year removed from a brutal spinning elbow KO from Lerone Murphy.
Keita has one-punch knockout power, and he'll find his mark Saturday.
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita combo
Four of Pico's last six fights have ended in the first round (two wins, two losses), while Keita has earned a knockout victory within the first two rounds in four of his last seven bouts.
Both guys are willing to stand and trade in the pocket, but only one has one-punch knockout power, and that's Keita.
Takedowns will be Pico's path to victory, but Keita boasts 100% takedown defense in the UFC. The bigger, stronger fighter will be difficult to keep down even if Pico manages to get him to the ground.
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Aaron Pico | Losene Keita |
| To win outright | 56% | 44% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 25% | 32% |
| To win by decision | 24% | 14% |
| To win by submission | 8% | 3% |
| Fight to go the distance | Yes 37% |
No 67% |
Odds as of 10-22.
This fight looks like it could go one of two ways: either Keita scores a knockout, or Pico wrestles his way to a decision.
Both outcomes are attractively priced, with Pico by decision at 24% and my preferred play, Keita by KO, at 32%.
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Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita tale of the tape
| Aaron Pico | Losene Keita | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 14-5-0 | Record | 17-2-0 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 11 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 0 |
Keita is the slightly bigger fighter, holding a one-inch height advantage and a two-inch reach advantage.
Pico enjoyed a two-inch height advantage over Pitbull in his last win, so I can see the taller, longer Keita causing him problems on the feet.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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