Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili serves as Saturday's UFC 333 co-main event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.
Yan defends his bantamweight title against the former champion in a rubber match after avenging a lopsided 2023 defeat with an impressive but competitive decision victory last December. Dive into the latest UFC 333 odds and free betting picks for Saturday's championship showdown.
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili predictions for UFC 333
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Yan | 58% |
| Method of finish: Decision | 73% |
| Yan to win by decision | 40% |
| Combo | 60% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili: Petr Yan (58% Probability)
Yan is my pick. His victory over Dvalishvili last December was an astounding return to form, but I wouldn't call it the one-sided beating some have made it out to be.
Dvalishvili was attempting his fourth title defense of the year, and I suspect that schedule had finally caught up with him. I expect another competitive fight at UFC 333, with Yan's superior boxing and improved defensive wrestling allowing him to retain the title.
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili top pick: Methord of finish — Decision (73% Probability)
A decision being the method of victory is my top pick. These two have already spent 10 rounds together without either coming particularly close to being finished, and I don't expect their third meeting to be any different.
Dvalishvili may be fresher this time, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll find more success. I anticipate another grueling tactical battle in which both men have their moments before the judges determine the winner.
COVERS INTEL: Petr Yan has won four consecutive fights by decision, including his December victory over Dvalishvili. Meanwhile, 16 of Dvalishvili's 21 career victories have come on the scorecards.Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili prop: Yan to win by decision (40% Probability)
Yan by decision is my preferred prop. Dvalishvili is unlikely to abandon the high-pressure wrestling that made him a champion, but Yan has already shown he can neutralize those attacks. I expect him to defend enough takedowns, land the cleaner punches, and narrowly earn another competitive decision to retain his title.
Some jawing going on between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili during their face off 👀 [ #UFC333 SAT Oct 24 | 2pm ET on @paramountplus ] https://t.co/e4XoJTw5fP
— UFC on Paramount+ (@UFConParamount) October 22, 2026
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili combo
This parlay backs Yan to repeat his success against Dvalishvili without expecting another comfortable victory.
Dvalishvili should bring considerably more energy into their third meeting, but Yan has already demonstrated he can defend enough takedowns to dictate stretches of the fight on his feet. With both fighters possessing exceptional durability and plenty of experience fighting into the championship rounds, I expect Yan to win the cleaner exchanges and retain his title on the scorecards.
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili |
| To win outright | 58% | 43% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 17% | 8% |
| To win by decision | 40% | 32% |
| To win by submission | 4% | 6% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 70% |
No 30% |
Odds as of 10-22.
Yan is a modest 57% favorite, with the market expecting another competitive fight between these familiar rivals. Both fighters are considerably more likely to win by decision than stoppage, with Yan carrying a 40% decision probability compared to Dvalishvili's 32%.
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Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili tale of the tape
| Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| Bantamweight (C) | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 67 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 20-5 | Record | 21-5 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Yan is slightly younger and taller, while Dvalishvili owns an extra inch of reach. Yan is the much sharper boxer, with seven career knockouts compared to Dvalishvili's three, while the latter's relentless wrestling remains his greatest weapon.
Dvalishvili averages nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes, but Yan's 86% takedown defense gives the champion the tools to keep enough of this fight standing to win the exchanges.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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