A pair of middleweights in desperate need of a win are set to throw down tonight when Mansur Abdul-Malik takes on Dustin Stoltzfus on the main card of UFC 330 at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
Once considered a top prospect in the division, Malik enters this fight having won just once in his last three trips to the octagon. Stoltzfus, meanwhile, is currently riding a two-fight losing streak, but has proven to be a serviceable journeyman.
Current UFC odds list Malik as a massive -700 favorite, but that number feels overinflated, so my Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus predictions and free betting picks will be backing the underdog Stoltzfus on Saturday, Aug. 15.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus predictions for UFC 330
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Stoltzfus moneyline | +450 |
| Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds | -140 |
| Prop: Fight goes the distance | +150 |
Who will win Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus: Stoltzfus moneyline (+450)
After starting out his career a perfect 8-0, Mansur Abdul-Malik has been looking like a bust, often struggling in his fights regardless of the level of opponent.
He was a -1250 favorite against Nick Klein and still managed to lose the first round, and then arguably lost the first two rounds against Cody Brundage as a -900 favorite before settling for a draw.
In his most recent appearance, he was defeated for the first time after getting TKO’d in the third round against Yousir Belgaroui, another fight where he was favored on the betting line.
His opponent, Dustin Stoltzfus, isn’t anything special, but he’s a well-rounded veteran who’s competed against a higher level of competition so far in his career. The key for him in this fight is to take advantage of Malik’s tendency to start slow and overall low striking output.
It’s still going to be a tough fight for him, but given the absurd moneyline on this fight, it’s dog or pass for me all day.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-140)
Malik is supposed to be some next-level prospect, but has failed to prove that in his last few fights.
His biggest issue is his penchant for starting out fights slowly, often dropping the first round before starting to rally later on in the contest. As a result, three of his last four fights have gone Over 1.5 rounds, and unless he’s suddenly changed his entire approach to fighting, it’s going to be more of the same here.
For all of the issues that Stoltzfus has, durability isn’t necessarily one of them. In his seven losses in the UFC, he’s only been finished in Under 1.5 rounds twice. He managed to go the distance in both of his most recent appearances, both of which came against a higher level of opposition than he’ll encounter on Saturday.
Even if he can’t manage to spring the upset in this spot, he should be able to cover the Over 1.5 rounds, and I feel that’s the best bet in this fight.
COVERS INTEL: With 24 pro fights, Dustin Stolzfus is the most experienced opponent Abdul-Malik has faced in his career.Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus prop pick: Fight goes the distance (+150)
Dustin Stoltzfus has lost his last two fights in the UFC, but managed to go the distance in both of them, with both opponents being higher-ranked and more proven than Mansur Abdul-Malik.
Neither of these fighters are necessarily considered a big finisher, and this fight going to a decision seems likely.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Mansur Abdul-Malik | Dustin Stoltzfus |
| To win outright | -700 | +450 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -135 | +1900 |
| To win by decision | +265 | +900 |
| To win by submission | +730 | +1250 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -140 |
Under 1.5 +110 |
Odds as of 8-15.
The moneyline on this just feels way off at +450, and I would be willing to play it as low as +300. The Over 1.5 for the total rounds market is pretty accurate at -140 and could still be playable as far as -165 if need be.
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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus tale of the tape
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | Dustin Stoltzfus | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 79.5 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 9-1-1 | Record | 16-8 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Malik boasts a near-five inch reach advantage, while also being the younger and taller fighter.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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