The UFC welterweight title is up for grabs in Philadelphia when pound-for-pound great Islam Makhachev defends against hungry challenger Ian Machado Garry in the main event of UFC 330 at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Currently riding an astonishing 16-fight win streak, it’s no surprise that Makhachev is the betting favorite, but with current UFC odds listing him at -370, we’ll have to find value elsewhere in this matchup.
Garry is a polarizing fighter, but his size and age advantages give him a viable chance to surprise everyone. I’ll be backing him in my Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry predictions and free betting picks for Aug. 15.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry predictions for UFC 330
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Who will win Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry: Garry moneyline (+270)
The betting line for this fight just seems like a popularity contest more than anything. Islam Makhachev is one of the most popular fighters on the roster and is viewed as one of the best pound-for-pound stars currently competing in the sport.
Ian Machado Garry, meanwhile, is universally disliked due to his personality and questionable life choices. This has caused most fans to essentially write him off completely, creating an unjustified line.
Makhachev has built his resume as a feared lightweight champion, often fighting against featherweights who were moving up in class. This is a matchup against an actual welterweight, and unlike Jack Della Maddalena, Garry has the takedown defence and grappling to actually make the champ work.
Similar to Sean Strickland defeating Khamzat Chimaev earlier this year, the larger striker is live to stop the wrestling attack and out-point his foe on the feet for a competitive decision win.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry best bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-160)
Makhachev’s primary skill has always been his world-class wrestling, but that’s an area where Garry has improved considerably.
Despite being known as a striker, Garry has been taken down just twice in his last 17 attempts faced. If he can defend the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet, it’s wide open for him to win.
The problem is that Garry isn’t much of a finisher. His last six fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards, and 73% of his UFC appearances have gone the distance.
Makhachev, meanwhile, is the more proven finisher, but since moving up to welterweight, he’s fought just once — a rather uninspiring decision win over former champ Jack Della, where the Russian mostly just laid on top of him.
Garry has never been finished, and even if he can’t stop the takedowns, he’s unlikely to get put away. Over 4.5 rounds is the way to go.
COVERS INTEL: In 29 professional fights, Makhachev has never faced anyone taller than 6 feet, and he’ll now take on Garry, who is listed at 6-foot-3.Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry prop pick: Garry by decision (+475)
Makhachev’s only career loss came by decision, but his striking has vastly improved since then.
If Garry were more of a power puncher, he might be able to clip him, but his best path is to stop the takedowns and outpoint the Russian champion to squeak out a decision.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
| To win outright | -370 | +270 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +790 | +790 |
| To win by decision | +125 | +475 |
| To win by submission | +210 | +2700 |
| Total rounds | Over 4.5 -160 |
Under 4.5 +125 |
Odds as of 8-15.
I’d be willing to play Over 4.5 rounds as high as -185, but if it went any higher, I’d switch to “Fight Goes to Decision” at a better number.
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Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry tale of the tape
| Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 28-1 | Record | 17-1 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 13 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Garry is six years younger and will have a five-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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