UFC 288 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Dober Doles Out Damage

UFC 288 takes place tonight at the Prudential Center in New Jersey, featuring the return of Henry Cejudo as he tries to relieve the bantamweight title from Aljamain Sterling’s capable hands. Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad also square off for a future shot at the welterweight title. 

The main card is stacked with great fights, but the preliminaries have solid potential to turn your betting weekend into a profitable one.

Here are our free betting picks and predictions for the UFC 288 preliminaries on May 6.

UFC 288 prelim picks and predictions

Daniel Santos vs. Johnny Munoz Jr.
• Prediction: Santos ML (-190)
• Best Bet: Santos by KO/TKO/DQ (+130)

Parker Porter vs. Braxton Smith
• Prediction: Porter ML (-170)
• Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+155)

Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola
• Prediction: Dober ML (-210)
• Best Bet: Dober by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+215)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

Santos fights like a hurricane incarnate. He’s a wild-swinging striker who throws everything he’s got, and his unorthodox approach opens up unique striking lanes to work his opponents over. In short, he’s relentless and always striking with the intent to destroy.

The conservative-minded Munoz Jr. isn’t a pushover, but he gets his work done with grappling. He was knocked out shooting for a takedown against Tony Gravely, and has questionable cardio. The key to his game plan is to somehow slow Santos down and get him to the ground, but we have trouble seeing him doing that.

Santos should be able to blitz Munoz Jr. right out of the gates, and clip him with a shot that sends him down and out. 

Prediction: Santos ML (-190 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Santos by KO/TKO/DQ (+130 at DraftKings)

Heavyweight journeyman Porter is welcoming promotional newcomer Smith, who has been a knockout artist on the regional circuit. While Smith has a touch-of-death right hand, he doesn’t come with anything else that Porter can’t be ready for. Though Porter won’t be confused as the class of the division, he’s a major upgrade in competition for the one-note Smith.

However, Porter’s chin is a liability. All three of his UFC losses have come in the first round. Smith’s window is limited, maybe less than a round, but it won’t require a sledgehammer to crack his opponent. If Porter gets out of the first round, and especially if he crowds Smith and wrestles him down, then the fight is lost for Smith.

Smith is too raw, even at this level of the game. Porter should get out of the first round and either outlast Smith for a decision or score a submission later on. We’ll take this going over 1.5 rounds.

Prediction: Porter ML (-170 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+155 at DraftKings)

Dober is one of the best strikers at lightweight, and Frevola is known for his weak chin and poor decisions. That really narrows down how we see this one going. Dober was getting his bell rung repeatedly by Bobby Green in his last fight, but he found an opening, clipped Green with a beauty of a left hook, and the life went out of him.

Frevola has won his last two, but doesn’t pass the eye test here. Dober has been fighting better opposition — including wins over Frevola’s conquerors Polo Reyes and Terrance McKinney — and McKinney knocked Frevola out in seven seconds. We’re not too sure Frevola can hold it together to pin Dober down, or go three rounds without actively trading strikes.

With Dober’s superior striking and Frevola’s inability to slow him down, this could be a short fight. We’re liking Dober to win inside the first round.

Prediction: Dober ML (-210 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Dober by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+215 at DraftKings)

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