UFC 282 Till vs du Plessis Picks and Predictions: This Fight Won't Go the Distance

Injuries have derailed Darren Till's career of late, keeping him out of fights for over a year. While it'd be a nice comeback, it might be a tall ask against Dricus du Plessis. Our betting picks dig deeper into this bout and which angle you should take.

Last Updated: Dec 10, 2022 7:52 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Dricus du Plessis UFC 282
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Darren Till vs. Dricus du Plessis is on the main card for UFC 282 betting on December 10 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

This should be an entertaining bout between Top-15 middleweights with the former contender Till looking to get his career back on track by upsetting the fast-rising du Plessis.

UFC odds opened with du Plessis as a slim -135 favorite but he now sits at -175 with Till the underdog at +150. Here are my best free Till vs. du Plessis picks and predictions for UFC 282 on Saturday, December 10.

Till vs du Plessis fight odds

Till vs du Plessis method of victory odds

Method of Victory Darren Till Dricus du Plessis
To win by KO/TKO +420 +190
To win by Points +420 +340
To win by Submission +2,600 +500
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on December 8, 2022.

Till vs du Plessis picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Till vs du Plessis betting preview

Darren Till is the No. 10-ranked middleweight contender despite going just 1-4 in his last five fights and that lone victory coming by split decision three years ago.

Till has pulled out of three of his last four scheduled bouts due to various injuries and hasn't fought since getting dominated by Derek Brunson in September of 2021 when he was controlled for more than seven minutes and submitted in the third round. 

It wasn't that long ago that Till was viewed as one of the brightest young stars in the UFC and even in defeats to Jorge Masvidal and Robert Whittaker, he displayed dangerous striking ability by knocking down both fighters.

The 29-year-old is a very technical kickboxer and is excellent in the clinch with his Muay Thai skills.

Dricus du Plessis is the No. 14-ranked middleweight and is on a five-fight winning streak, including three in a row in the UFC. In his most recent bout, he defeated another technical kickboxer in Brad Tavares by unanimous decision thanks to a strong third round where he had a 60-39 edge in significant strikes. 

The 27-year-old dominated the fight circuit in his native South Africa for years before moving over to KSW where he claimed the welterweight championship.

Du Plessis isn't the most polished striker but he's aggressive and throws with volume and power. He also has excellent grappling with nine career submission wins.

Till vs du Plessis tale of the tape

Darren Till   Dricus du Plessis
29 Age 28
6-foot-0 Height 6-foot-1
185 lbs Weight 185 lbs
74.5 inches Reach 76 inches
18-4-1 (10 KO) Record 17-2 (7 KO)

Till vs du Plessis UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Till was destroyed by Brunson's wrestling in his last bout and it later came out that he entered that fight with a serious knee injury. That said, injuries have kept him out of several fights over the last few years and it's fair to ask just how much wear and tear there is on his body.

Since the loss to Brunson, Till has been famously training with Khamzat Chimaev in hopes of upgrading his wrestling but until I see that improvement in the octagon, I simply don't trust it.

Ring rust is another major issue for Till and as much as I wish we could see him at his peak once again, MMA history has shown us that the fall is steep when fighters are on the decline.

Du Plessis is in much better form and his physical, well-rounded skillset should send Till home with another loss. 

Prediction: Du Plessis moneyline (-175 at FanDuel)

The one thing that makes me wary of backing du Plessis is that if Till is anywhere near as good as when he fought Whittaker in 2020, he could starch him. 

Du Plessis has a high-pressure, blitzing style that makes him a bit hittable and he often keeps his hands so high that it opens up shots to his body. 

Till has plenty of power and can work the body, and he's at his best when he can counter. Those counter-striking opportunities will come up often against du Plessis, who has struggled to implement his offensive wrestling at this level (going 0-7 on takedown attempts in his last fight).

The way I see it, this fight has two possible outcomes. Either a washed-up Till gets finished or he puts together a vintage performance and knocks out an over-aggressive du Plessis. Either way, this bout should end before the midway point of Round 3.

Pick: Under 2.5 rounds (-150 at FanDuel)

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