Renato Moicano is a narrow 53% favorite over Tom Nolan in Saturday's UFC Fight Night headliner at Meta APEX in Las Vegas.
Moicano looks to build on his recent submission victory over Chris Duncan, while Nolan enters on a five-fight winning streak.
Read our Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan predictions, plus the latest UFC odds and free betting picks for Saturday's lightweight showdown.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Renato Moicano | 53% |
| Top pick: Fight ends before Round 5 (No) | 30% |
| Prop: Renato Moicano by decision | 10% |
| Combo: Moicano to win + decision | 38% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: Renato Moicano (53%)
Moicano is my pick. Nolan is younger, taller, and riding a five-fight winning streak, but there's a considerable gap in the quality of their opposition.
Moicano has beaten Jalin Turner, Benoît Saint Denis, and Chris Duncan, while Nolan faces the most experienced opponent of his career.
Moicano isn't an elite lightweight, and his loss to Beneil Dariush raises questions, but his striking and grappling should expose Nolan's weaknesses.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan top pick: Fight ends before Round 5 (No) (30%)
I'm backing this fight to reach Round 5. Nolan is an active striker who has increasingly shown he can win without relying on his finishing power, with three of his last five victories coming by decision.
Moicano is more experienced and defensively responsible, and I expect him to frustrate Nolan rather than engage in unnecessary exchanges.
Nolan's size and activity should keep things competitive, but his defensive wrestling could allow Moicano to control long stretches of the fight.
COVERS INTEL: Nolan has surrendered five takedowns across his last two decision victories, including three against Farès Ziam, while Moicano averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes.Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan prop: Moicano by decision (10%)
Moicano by decision is my preferred prop. Nolan's youth, size, and activity make him dangerous, but he hasn't faced anyone with Moicano's experience or offensive versatility.
Moicano should hold his own in striking exchanges while using his grappling to disrupt Nolan's rhythm.
I expect Nolan to remain competitive, but Moicano's adjustments and positional control should allow the veteran to outwork him over five rounds.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan same-game parlay
This parlay backs Moicano to use his experience and well-rounded skill set to hand Nolan his second professional defeat. Nolan has impressed during his winning streak, but his opposition hasn't prepared him for someone who can challenge him both on the feet and on the mat.
Moicano remains a capable striker, and Nolan's defensive wrestling should give the veteran opportunities to control stretches of the fight.
With Nolan's size and activity making a stoppage difficult to guarantee, I expect Moicano to rely on his experience and tactical awareness to win a competitive decision.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan |
| To win outright | 53% | 47% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 11% | 27% |
| To win by decision | 10% | 10% |
| To win by submission | 33% | 5% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 26% |
No 74% |
Odds as of 10-30.
Moicano is a narrow 53% favorite, with the market identifying his submission game as his most likely path to victory at 33%. Nolan's clearest route is by knockout at 27%, reflecting his striking advantages against the veteran.
However, Nolan hasn't faced anyone with Moicano's experience or grappling ability. While the market favors a finish, I expect Moicano to exploit Nolan's defensive wrestling, control the pace, and earn a competitive decision.
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Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan tale of the tape
| Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 21-7-1 | Record | 11-1 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 11 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Nolan has demonstrated considerably more knockout power, with five wins by strikes, while Moicano brings the stronger submission résumé with 11 victories by tapout.
Despite their age difference, Moicano's experience against higher-level opposition and more polished grappling should give him the tools to neutralize Nolan's athletic advantages.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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