The co-main event at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas features a welterweight bout between veteran Randy Brown and undefeated prospect Jacobe Smith, who steps in as a late replacement and a 72% favorite.
Despite the quick turnaround for Smith, I'm calling for a finish from the undefeated prospect in my Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith predictions.
Keep reading for the latest UFC odds and my free picks for Saturday, Oct. 31.
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Jacobe Smith | 72% |
| Top pick: Fight ends by KO/TKO/DQ | 58% |
| Prop: Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ | 39% |
| Combo | 2.63x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith: Jacobe Smith
2026 has been the year of the veteran in the UFC, but I expect that trend to end in this bout.
Jacobe Smith steps in on short notice following a KO win at UFC 332, but the 13-0 prospect looks ready to dominate again.
Smith might be the most athletic fighter in the welterweight division, and his physical gifts, combined with his wrestling, should overwhelm Brown, who will struggle to keep up with his pace.
The 36-year-old Brown hasn't beaten a fighter younger than 35 since 2023, and Smith presents a different kind of challenge.
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith top pick: Fight ends by KO/TKO/DQ
Smith has run through the welterweight division since debuting on Dana White's Contender Series in 2024, racking up four knockouts and one submission victory in five UFC fights.
The undefeated prospect relies on his athleticism and wrestling, finishing each of his last two fights in the first round with ground-and-pound. Expect the same game plan against Brown.
On the flip side, Bruce Whitehead rocked Smith in his last bout at UFC 332 just four weeks ago. Brown is a wily veteran with knockout power of his own, so Smith could get chinned if he isn't careful.
COVERS INTEL: Brown has not defeated a fighter under the age of 35 since 2023, going 4-3 over that span.Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith prop: Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO/DQ
Wrestling is Smith's biggest strength, thanks to his NCAA background, but the 30-year-old has heavy hands, too. He's recorded 10 knockouts in 13 professional fights, with six of his last seven wins coming by KO.
Brown is just a year removed from a KO loss to Gabriel Bonfim, who isn't known for his knockout power. Bonfim has only four knockouts in 21 professional bouts.
Smith averages a staggering 7.92 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. I expect him to take Brown down and finish him with ground strikes.
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith combo
Smith has made quick work of his last seven opponents, finishing each fight within the first two rounds.
With more than a decade of UFC experience, Brown won't be an easy opponent to finish. However, the veteran hasn't faced many fighters with Smith's combination of athleticism and wrestling.
I expect Smith to get Brown to the ground and finish the fight there.
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith |
| To win outright | 29% | 72% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 18% | 39% |
| To win by decision | 8% | 14% |
| To win by submission | 5% | 19% |
| Fight to go the distance | Yes 27% |
No 80% |
Odds as of Oct. 30.
The market strongly favors an early finish, pricing the fight not to go the distance at 80%. Smith is listed at 39% to win by knockout, compared with 18% for Brown.
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Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith tale of the tape
| Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 30 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 78 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 20-8-0 | Record | 13-0-0 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 10 |
| 5 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Brown has a five-inch height advantage and a six-inch reach advantage, but Smith's game plan will be to close the distance. If Brown has success, it'll likely come from keeping Smith at range.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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