UFC 277 Lewis vs Pavlovich Picks and Predictions: Black Beast Takes Care of Business

Coming off a devastating knockout loss to Tai Tuivasa at UFC 271, Derrick Lewis looks to inflict the punishment this time around. Sergei Pavlovich has yet to beat any big names in the UFC, and that's why we love Lewis at plus money on Saturday in Dallas.

Last Updated: Jul 30, 2022 8:17 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich is on the main card for UFC 277 betting on July 30.

This should be an intriguing battle with Lewis acting as a gatekeeper near the top of the heavyweight division, taking on a young up-and-comer in Pavlovich. UFC betting odds hit the board with Lewis as a slim -115 favorite, but money has come in on Pavlovich, who now sits as the favorite at -135. 

Here are our best free Lewis vs. Pavlovich picks and predictions for UFC 277 tonight from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.

Lewis vs Pavlovich fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Lewis vs Pavlovich method of victory odds

Method of Victory Derrick Lewis Sergei Pavlovich
To win by KO/TKO +165 -105
To win by Points +750 +1,000
To win by Submission +2,500 +1,600
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 28, 2022.

Lewis vs Pavlovich picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Lewis vs Pavlovich betting preview

Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis is fresh off a knockout loss to Tai Tuivasa in February and has lost two of his last three fights. He was also knocked out by No. 1 contender Ciryl Gane last August, which snapped a four-fight winning streak.

In between the defeats to Gane and Tuivasa, Lewis faced rising heavyweight Chris Daukaus as a +110 underdog in December and promptly starched him in the first round. 

The 37-year-old Lewis is a massive man who walks around at 290 pounds before cutting for the weigh-in. His conditioning and skills are subpar, but he has incredible strength and punching power with a UFC record 13 knockouts to his name.

Sergei Pavlovich was knocked out by Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut in 2018 but has since reeled off three-straight wins in the octagon, with each of those victories coming by KO/TKO inside of the first round.

In his previous bout four months ago, he dropped Shamil Abdurakhimov with a right uppercut then finished him on the ground to earn a Performance of the Night bonus.

The former Fight Nights Global heavyweight champion has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling but has relied on his striking in the UFC, using his 84-inch reach to land 6.08 significant strikes per minute. 

Lewis vs Pavlovich tale of the tape

Derrick Lewis   Sergei Pavlovich
37 Age 30
6-foot-3 Height 6-foot-3
266 lbs Weight 254 lbs
79 inches Reach 84 inches
26-9 (21 KOs) Record 15-1 (12 KOs)

Lewis vs Pavlovich UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Lewis may have lost two of his last three, but Gane and Tuivasa are ranked near the top of the division, and he landed some huge shots on Tuivasa in the second frame before getting flatlined.

Pavlovich hasn't faced any opponents near the level of those two fighters. His victories in the octagon have come against guys like Abdurakhimov (currently on a three-fight skid), Maurice Greene (2-5 in his last seven and fresh off a loss in the PFL), and Marcelo Golm (who was promptly cut after losing to Pavlovich). 

This is a big step up for the Russian heavyweight who hasn't been very active since making his promotional debut, and I haven't seen enough from him to back him as a fave against someone like Lewis.

The Black Beast is tough to turn down at plus money in this spot, and if he connects against Pavlovich, I don't think the Russian has the chin of Tuivasa to stand in the pocket and fire back. 

Prediction: Lewis moneyline (+115 at DraftKings)

Although Pavlovich has a five-inch reach advantage, he could have a tough time with distance management because of Lewis' ability to explode into the pocket. Lewis isn't the fastest heavyweight, but he's surprisingly quick in bursts, and all it takes is one punch for him to say goodnight.

For good reason, Lewis owns the UFC record for knockouts, and his last three wins have all come by way of KO/TKO. I don't see Pavlovich going 15 minutes without making a mistake, and I think the Black Beast manages to catch him at some point.

Regardless of which fighter you're backing to win this one, you should consider betting on them to win by KO/TKO with this bout unlikely to go the full three rounds.

Pick: Lewis by KO/TKO (+165 at DraftKings)

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