French Open 2023 Men's Semifinal Odds and Predictions: Joker Outclassed?

Carlos Alcaraz is a favorite over Novak Djokovic in the men's semifinal, and while that might surprise casual tennis observers, it shouldn't. See why our French Open picks like the young Spaniard.

Last Updated: Jun 8, 2023 6:53 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Carlos Alcaraz French Open
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Just four men remain in the singles draw at the French Open, and with one of the semifinals comes a matchup for the ages.

Young Carlos Alcaraz has never hoisted the trophy here at Roland Garros, yet he enters as the French Open odds favorite over 22-time grand slam champion Novak Djokovic.

Let’s take a look at how to bet Friday’s first semifinal in our French Open betting picks and predictions.

French Open Men's Semifinal picks and predictions

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic odds and picks

(1) Carlos Alcaraz (3) Novak Djokovic
-205 Moneyline +170
-4.5 (+105) Game spread +4.5 (-130)
Over 38.5 (+105) Total games Under 38.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 7, 2023.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic match prediction

Many casual tennis fans will look at these odds in astonishment, but I’m here to tell you they’re incredibly justified. In fact, had books laid Alcaraz as a -300 favorite I’d still be inclined to say it’s a fair line. The fact of the matter is that this kid is playing the best tennis of anyone in the world — and it’s not even close.

Alcaraz defeated Djokovic en route to the title last year in Madrid and has only grown since then. He’s figured out how to navigate best-of-five tennis and manage his stamina, winning the US Open last fall. He’s also dialed in his serve and become a nearly unbreakable man out there. While you might have been able to make an argument a year ago that an in-form Djokovic would beat Alcaraz on a clay court, given the nature of their Madrid match, you can no longer say that. The gap is widening.

Prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-200 at Caesars)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic best bet

Djokovic has outlasted the best in the world in long rallies and proven to be an impossible player to hit through on the court, but Alcaraz possesses other-worldly power off of both wings. His ultra-aggressive style can get through even the best defense, and with that, I think this match will be rather straightforward.

We’ve seen Alcaraz drop his level in each of the last three matches, but even in those sets he’s quickly turned around and broken his opponent. Djokovic, on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent with his play and has come out of the gates rather slowly.

It seems Djokovic is just getting old out there, drifting in and out of his best tennis. He can’t afford to sleepwalk at any part of this match against Alcaraz, who is far better than anyone he’s played in the past month. The Spaniard also had the benefit of coming through tougher competition to reach this stage, further preparing him to dominate Djokovic.

Think back to the 2020 Roland Garros final when Rafael Nadal absolutely cooked an out-of-sorts Djokovic. We might see the same thing here.

Best bet: Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-125 at DraftKings)

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