We’ve all heard the story: Joe Montana spotted John Candy in the crowd at the 1989 Super Bowl just before leading the 49ers 92 yards to win the game.
The biggest sports in the USA attracts some of the biggest names from across the sports, pop culture and political spheres.
Kalshi has a Super Bowl prediction market ready to hype up your celebrity spotting during the big game: let’s get into the ‘Who will attend the Super Bowl’ Prediction Market.
Key Takeaways
- There are opportunities in this market if you act fast
- Lionel Messi’s schedule would indicate buying ‘No’ is straight profit
- Will Kristi Noem be in attendance in-line with her comments?
| Prediction Market: 'Who will attend the Big Game?' | Pick |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: ‘No’ | 💲 Buy |
| Taylor Swift: ‘No’ | ❌ Avoid |
| Kristi Noem or Tom Homan: ‘Yes’ | 💲 Buy |
| Elon Musk: ‘Yes’ | 💲 Buy |
'Who will attend the Super Bowl?' Prediction Market
'Who will attend the Super Bowl?' Prediction Market value picks
All values correct at the time of publishing
BUY: Lionel Messi | ‘No’ at 55c | 53% Chance
There was a point in this market not so long ago when soccer star, Lionel Messi was way up at 96% probable to the ‘Yes’ side of the market, however the ‘No’ price is tumbling quickly so act fast to buy in at a reasonable price.
Why is this price dropping? The market is getting wise to Lionel Messi playing in the MLS preseason on a tour round South America. He’s the biggest star from the continent since Diego Maradona, so it makes sense he’s going to be present until the tour concludes on February 13.
AVOID: Taylor Swift | ‘No’ at 81c | 81% Chance
Tay-Tay has only attended two Super Bowls, and that was when future husband, Travis Kelce was on the field playing for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Prior to that: she had never been to the Super Bowl.
The question lingers on why would she attend when she has no skin in the game? Well, because that’s where Travis is probably going to be.
Kelce will be hosting an event called ‘Tight Ends and Friends’ during Super Bowl week in San Francisco, and is likely to hang around for the game on Sunday.
We’re advising to stay away from this market as we’re concerned about the possibility of ‘what-if’ they just show up to party?
BUY: Kristi Noem or Tom Homan | ‘Yes’ at 8c/7c | 7%/7% Chance
Kristi Noem made statements declaring her intention to attend the Super Bowl as part of the security efforts at the event as early as October 2025.
There have been numerous comments over the last few days that there will be an ICE presence at the Super Bowl but whether that includes that includes Noem’s presence as the the US Secretary of Homeland Security being inside the stadium for the game remains to be seen.
Given President Trump’s assertations that he won’t attend the game in 2026: it’s reasonable to expect someone from the administration may still be in attendance and at such a low price: ‘Yes’ Noem or White House Border Czar, Tom Homan represent low-risk, high-payoff buys.
BUY: Elon Musk | ‘Yes’ at 35c | 21% Chance
The richest man on the planet can buy his way into anything he wants. That includes the last football game of the year.
Pro Tip
If you have the sudden urge to be in Santa Clara to be 'in the room where it happens' - the lowest price halfway line seats on Seatgeek right now are a very reasonable $8,287.
Musk has attended the Super Bowl in the past, back at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas and he has numerous business interests in the Bay Area in Tesla and X.
This price has moved significantly in the last 24 hours - at one point the differential between the Chance and ‘Yes’ price was around 15 points - so this may be a market to monitor before you make our move.
'Who will attend the Super Bowl?' Prediction Market History
Trading the Guest List: How to Play the Super Bowl 60 Attendance Markets
What if you could trade celebrity sightings with the same precision as a tech stock? Prediction markets have turned the Super Bowl 60 guest list—from Silicon Valley titans to political heavyweights—into a tradable commodity, governed by the same laws of supply and demand as the stock exchange.
The Payout Ceiling: Binary Outcomes
Every "Who will attend?" contract is a binary path. A share in Jason Kelce attending is either worth $1.00 at settlement or it is worth nothing. This simple payout structure allows for more complex portfolio strategies than traditional wagering, letting you hedge a ‘YES’ on a political figure with a ‘NO’ on a music star.
Price Discovery and Probability
The price you pay for an attendance contract represents the market's current consensus.
When the market priced Lionel Messi at $0.45, it signaled an approximate 45% implied probability of his appearance at Levi’s Stadium. If you have information, perhaps tracking private flight manifests or team preseason schedules, suggesting the real probability is 60%, the market is effectively offering you a discount on the truth.
Market Liquidity and Freedom
Unlike traditional sportsbooks that might "limit" winning players, prediction exchanges move with action. You are trading alongside other humans in real-time. This allows you to exit your position on Donald Trump or Taylor Swift at any time before kickoff, locking in profits if a public statement causes their ‘YES’ shares to spike.
Compliance and Liquidity
In the Super Bowl 60 attendance market, your choice of platform is a choice of regulatory comfort and depth.
Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in the US, overseen by the CFTC. It provides a fully regulated environment for trading event contracts like the Super Bowl guest list, offering the consumer protections and transparency expected of a US financial institution.
Celebrities at the Super Bowl Prediction Market FAQs
While Lionel Messi is the second highest celebrity in the Kalshi market: our research indicates it’s far less likely than the market dictates. Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami are playing in a preseason tour of South America through the first two weeks of Columbia. While it is possible he could leave the team to attend the game: we don’t expect he will.
Musk last attended the Super Bowl two years ago. His business ties in the San Francisco area could draw him to Santa Clara for the night. The Chance in the Kalshi market has dropped significantly so there may be market information we don’t have yet.
When you consider the facts: it is very easy to see why Jason Kelce is likely to be in attendace at the Super Bowl. Kelce is half of one of the biggest sports podcasts in the world (New Heights), he is a future Pro Football Hall of Famer, an analyst on Amazon Prime’s Thursday Night Football coverage, and the spokesperson for a number of nationwide brands. Jason Kelce is a very logical choice to attend the Super Bowl at Levi Stadium - and that what makes him a bad value pick in the market.
The 2025 Super Bowl saw a number of surprising celebrities on the sidelines and in the stands: Paul McCartney, Macaulay Culkin, Flava Flav and President Donald Trump were all there. The big game is a cultural event, not just a football game. It attracts a broad spectrum from across the sporting, pop culture and political worlds. Who will attend this year’s game? We can’t say. Prince Harry is one name that has been touted, however that’s the joy of the Super Bowl: you’re guaranteed to ask yourself “What are THEY doing there?”.
