Super Bowl LX puts every betting market under a microscope, and the passing props are where the cleanest opportunities usually surface.
With the Patriots and Seahawks set to meet on Sunday, books have posted a deep board of quarterback and passing markets, not all of them priced correctly.
Below are the NFL picks and Super Bowl predictions that stand out most, built around volume, game script, and how this matchup is most likely to play out.
Best passing props for Super Bowl LX
- Sam Darnold Over 229.5 passing yards (-113 at DraftKings)
- Drake Maye longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)
- Sam Darnold Over 19.5 completions (-110 at DraftKings)
- Drake Maye Over 30.5 pass attempts (-120 at DraftKings)
Expert Super Bowl LX passing props
Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season despite often playing with a positive game script. The Seattle Seahawks pivot went ballistic in the NFC Conference Championship Game, completing 25-for-36 passes for 346 yards.
The New England Patriots are stout against the run, so Seattle will likely air it out against a defense that ranked 15th in dropback success rate. The Pats haven't allowed many passing yards over the last month, but have often played in poor weather while facing a slew of bad QBs, including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarrett Stidham.
Drake Maye broke off big gains with his legs versus the Los Angeles Chargers (37-yard long) and Denver Broncos (28-yard long), and has recorded a run of 14+ yards in four of his last six games going back to Week 15’s showdown with the Buffalo Bills — another strong pass defense.
The Seahawks haven’t faced a quarterback as mobile as Maye in a long time. You’d have to go back to a Week 9 matchup with Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders for a comparable dual threat. Daniels finished with 51 rushing yards on 10 carries, with a long of 12 yards.
Maye’s rushing projections for Super Sunday range between 29 and 37 yards, which lean Under for his total rushing yards prop, given the negative game script pointing to more passing from the Patriots.
Sam Darnold now has two weeks to heal up from an oblique injury and threw the ball 36 times for 25 completions against the Rams. He's played a lot of zone-centric schemes in the last 10 games, and now faces a man-heavy Pats secondary. He's No. 3 in completion percentage vs. man and 13th in catchable pass rate vs. man (compared to 17th and 30th vs. zone in those stats).
Darnold has completed fewer than 20 passes only twice in the past seven games, and one of those Unders was playing hurt against the 49ers in the Divisional Round.
This is a classic game-script prop. New England’s postseason run hasn’t been built around protecting Drake Maye; it’s been built around trusting him to manage the offense and move the chains.
Against a Seattle defense that is likely to crowd the box on early downs, the Patriots’ safest and most efficient path is through the air.
If this game remains competitive — which the market expects — Maye’s passing volume should follow naturally. Clearing 31 attempts projects more like a baseline outcome than an aggressive ceiling, making the over a strong position at the current number.
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