Kansas City Chiefs

3rd in AFC West (5 - 3 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Nov 2 16:25 ET

Player Props

Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Khalil Shakir Score a Touchdown Props • Buffalo

Khalil Shakir
K. Shakir
wide receiver WR • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Projection Rating

With an impressive 22.9% Red Zone Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching an exceptional 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among wide receivers. With a stellar rate of 0.38 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Khalil Shakir rates as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers this year. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

Khalil Shakir

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.43
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.43

With an impressive 22.9% Red Zone Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching an exceptional 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among wide receivers. With a stellar rate of 0.38 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Khalil Shakir rates as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers this year. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Kareem Hunt Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Kareem Hunt
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.63
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.63
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board. Kareem Hunt's 91.6% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.2% rate.

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.63
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.63

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board. Kareem Hunt's 91.6% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.2% rate.

All Matchup props

Dalton Kincaid Score a Touchdown Props • Buffalo

Dalton Kincaid
D. Kincaid
tight end TE • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.31
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.31
Best Odds
Projection Rating

With a top-tier 15.6% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league. Dalton Kincaid has accrued a colossal 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Kincaid's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.0% to 77.9%.

Dalton Kincaid

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.31
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.31

With a top-tier 15.6% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league. Dalton Kincaid has accrued a colossal 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 91st percentile for TEs. The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Dalton Kincaid's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.0% to 77.9%.

All Matchup props

Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Rashee Rice
R. Rice
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.61
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.61
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). With a top-tier 37.5% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Rashee Rice stands as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Rashee Rice

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.61
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.61

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). With a top-tier 37.5% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Rashee Rice stands as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Josh Allen Score a Touchdown Props • Buffalo

Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.38
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.38
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Josh Allen's 68.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a material improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.7% figure. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

Josh Allen

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.38
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.38

The Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board. Josh Allen's 68.2% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a material improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.7% figure. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Travis Kelce Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Travis Kelce
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.31
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.31
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). With an exceptional 14.5% Red Zone Target Share (75th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.31
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.31

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). With an exceptional 14.5% Red Zone Target Share (75th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in football. The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Patrick Mahomes Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes
P. Mahomes
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.09
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.09
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.3. The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (4.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).

Patrick Mahomes

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.09
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.09

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average). In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.3. The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's contest (4.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV
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