NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Philadelphia Eagles may throw the ball less in this week's game (and call more carries) since they be forced to start backup QB Tanner McKee.. A passing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).. The Cowboys cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (58.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Rams.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. The model projects Matthew Stafford to throw 38.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.

The Browns rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.4% red zone pass rate.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.. With an atrocious rate of only 0.00 TDs on the ground per game (3rd percentile), Deshaun Watson stands as one of the worst running quarterbacks in the league this year.. This year, the porous Titans defense has been gouged for a staggering 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

At only 27.60 seconds per play, the Raiders offense grades out as the 10th-fastest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. The opposing side have run for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (135 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The opposing side have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (152 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.. The New Orleans defensive tackles project as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 136.2 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. The predictive model expects Jared Goff to throw 40.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.. Jared Goff's 295.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a remarkable gain in his throwing talent over last season's 239.0 rate.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Saints have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.7 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

The Falcons are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-most in football.. The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to accrue 5.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.. The Falcons offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 3-point favorite this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 6th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 44.4% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Bears to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a colossal 67.2 per game on average).. The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

The Falcons are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-most in football.. The Falcons offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.. This year, the poor 49ers defense has allowed a staggering 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in the league.

The Texans are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 132.6 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.69 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The opposing side have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (159 per game) vs. the Cowboys defense this year.

Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (132 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Denver's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

At the present time, the 2nd-most run-focused offense in the league (42.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. In this contest, Joe Burrow is expected by the model to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.3. . Joe Burrow has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (283.0) this year than he did last year (196.0).. Joe Burrow checks in as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL this year with an excellent 71.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 5 points.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to run on 46.5% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.. Opposing squads have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a staggering 62.2 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Colts to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a staggering 62.2 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to notch 9.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

A running game script is implied by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 136.2 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Saints have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.7 plays per game.. This year, the weak Steelers defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a monstrous 8.82 YAC.

The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.0% run rate.. While Sam Darnold has been responsible for 4.1% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Seattle's run game in this game at 9.2%.

The Falcons are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 7th-most in football.. Our trusted projections expect Drake London to garner 10.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.. Drake London comes in as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 68.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 63.0% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.. Michael Wilson's 95.7% Route Participation% this year conveys a significant boost in his air attack usage over last year's 84.8% figure.

The Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (92%) vs. tight ends this year (92.0%).. The Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 9.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Opposing teams have averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in football.

With a 3-point advantage, the Panthers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Panthers.. The predictive model expects Bryce Young to be a more important option in his offense's running game in this contest (9.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).

A running game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by the projection model to run 67.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (14.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.9% in games he has played).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Seattle's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 136.2 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 11.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. This year, the deficient Packers pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in the NFL.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Minnesota O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.. This year, the shaky Indianapolis Colts defense has been torched for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 8.80 yards.. The Indianapolis Colts defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-most in football.. The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The 49ers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.. The model projects the 49ers as the 8th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 43.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. In this contest, Brock Purdy is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 6th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 4.8. . Brock Purdy isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 16.3% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile among QBs.. Brock Purdy has run for a lot more yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (14.0).

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.. This year, the porous Titans pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the biggest rate in football.. The Tennessee cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 97.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a staggering 58.8 per game on average).. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.. This week, Aaron Rodgers is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.0.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to accrue 11.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The projections expect Ja'Marr Chase to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game in this game (31.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (21.1% in games he has played).. Ja'Marr Chase rates as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, catching an impressive 72.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among WRs.. This year, the poor Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up a massive 69.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-largest rate in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Opposing teams have averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in football.

While Tyler Allgeier has garnered 35.8% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Arizona's running game in this game at 48.6%.. Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (132 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Denver's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Joe Burrow's 14.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a substantial improvement in his rushing skills over last year's 5.0 rate.. Joe Burrow's 6.45 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteworthy improvement in his running skills over last year's 3.53 rate.. The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 8th-worst DE corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Opposing teams have averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in football.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Tyler Higbee has totaled many more adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (31.0).. This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed a staggering 85.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.94 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the feeble Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a colossal 8.48 yards.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Arizona's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At only 27.60 seconds per play, the Raiders offense grades out as the 10th-fastest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. This year, the feeble Rams defense has given up the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a colossal 4.59 YAC.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week.. Mike Gesicki has notched a staggering 39.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. Mike Gesicki has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).. Mike Gesicki's 9.7 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a material progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 7.4 rate.. The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.

With a 3-point advantage, the Panthers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Panthers.. In this contest, Chuba Hubbard is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 96th percentile among RBs with 20.6 carries.. Chuba Hubbard has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (80.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (34.9%).. Chuba Hubbard has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (70.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 132.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.. With an impressive 36.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (86th percentile) this year, Juwan Johnson ranks among the leading TE receiving threats in the league.. The Steelers pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) versus TEs this year (78.8%).

Our trusted projections expect the Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.4% pass rate.. At the present time, the 3rd-fastest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Panthers.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.. Chuba Hubbard has run more routes this year (58.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (41.6%).. Chuba Hubbard profiles as one of the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.