NFL Player Props and Best Projections

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the league (44.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Colts. The San Francisco defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been more involved as a potential target this season (18.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (6.6%). This year, the feeble Eagles defense has conceded a whopping 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-most in the league.

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Saints defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 7 points. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.24 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season marks a noteable improvement in his running ability over last season's 3.58 rate.

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. While Gardner Minshew has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Kansas City's run game in this week's contest at 10.0%. The opposing side have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points. Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 43.6% run rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This year, the tough Cardinals run defense has surrendered a meager 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 29th-smallest rate in the league. The Arizona defensive ends profile as the 4th-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a giant 14-point favorite in this game. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Texans to run on 45.6% of their downs: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 6-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to run on 47.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.1 plays per game. Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (140 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. The model projects Keenan Allen to notch 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The model projects Drake London to garner 10.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. With an exceptional 32.2% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. In regards to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a whopping 100.0 per game.

A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Indianapolis's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league. in the league.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded a monstrous 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

A running game script is implied by the Bengals being a 4-point favorite in this week's game. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL. This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a colossal 9.82 yards.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.9% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.8 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this game, Darnell Washington is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. Rashee Rice has gone out for fewer passes this season (76.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (65.1%). In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.7 targets. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (69.0) to TEs this year. The Steelers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.2%) vs. TEs this year (82.2%).

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in football vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 38.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most among all QBs.

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.8 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). Jacoby Brissett has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this season (14.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.6%). With a terrific record of 2.11 yards-after-contact (78th percentile), Jacoby Brissett rates among the leading running QBs in the NFL this year. The Atlanta defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run on 45.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The opposing side have run for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (159 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to run defense.

Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (260.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Bengals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.