Best NFL Picks Today

While it will take MHJ some time to adjust to a new offense, his chemistry with Stroud should help speed up that process. Houston leans heavily on the pass, and Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed.

Pollard's rushing prop is playable up to 64+ yards. Indianapolis ranks last in rushing EPA allowed and run-stop win rate, while a competitive Tennessee game script should keep Pollard involved throughout the second half.

The odds make it an expensive prop, but the Panthers are going to be running the ball and killing the clock late. Philly is 27th in time of possession. So Hubbard will get a steady diet of carries. 

Freiermuth's anytime TD is playable up to 28%. He leads Pittsburgh in receiving touchdowns and has been highly efficient when targeted, while the Steelers' other weapons help create favorable coverage looks near the goal line.

Playable up to -125 or 92.5. Henry leads the league with 113 carries while averaging 95.2 YPG on the ground, and yet there's room for more with Jackson sidelined and the Browns dealing with injuries across the defensive line. Henry has gone past this O/U number in eight of his last 10 outings.

Skattebo's anytime TD is playable up to 50%. New Orleans has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league and ranks 30th in defensive stuff rate, giving Skattebo a strong goal-line matchup if he gets short-yardage carries.

Play up to 35%. Brian Robinson Jr. has scored four rushing touchdowns on only 51 carries, converting four of his five red-zone attempts. With Atlanta leaning heavily on the ground game and Chicago missing key defenders, Robinson should get another scoring opportunity.

Hunter Henry has had his two most productive games of the year over the past two weeks. He's picked up a combined 106 yards on eight catches over the span, and scored a touchdown last Sunday against the Los Angeles Raiders. I like Henry to score a touchdown at 36% or lower.

Higbee's receiving Over is playable up to 42+ yards. He's cleared 62 yards in three straight games, leads the Rams in QB rating when targeted, and faces an Arizona defense allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs, who are averaging one per game. The Chargers will be without Tre Harris, while Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Brenen Thompson are all questionable.

Charlie Kolar might get the bulk of the tight end work, but Oronde Gadsden is the best pass-catcher, a real deep threat, and tied for the most red zone targets on the team.

Buffalo is 4-1 to the Over, with games averaging 61 combined points. The Raiders have allowed 34 points per game over their last three. They’re totally screwed against this Bills offense. Las Vegas can contribute, though, having scored 27 points in both of their home games. Buffalo has surrendered at least 29 in four of five outings. Neither defense should ruin the fun. Don’t overthink it.

The Cowboys will be down one corner, ruled out, and two others are questionable with injuries. Watson has topped 95 yards in three of his five games this season. 

Brock Purdy is 4-1 O/U on his rushing total this season and closed with a line of 25.5 yards last week. He's rushed for 29+ yards in all four Overs and projects for 29.4 yards on the ground Monday night, making 20+ yards at 44% the best +EV prop in this game. I'd buy it up to 54%. The Commanders are allowing 19.4 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Jameis Winston (27 yards on a 2.5-yard total), Dak Prescott (26 yards on a 12.5-yard total), and Jalen Hurts (46 yards on a 30.5-yard total) all set season-high rushing marks against this defense, beating their closing rushing totals by an average of 17 yards. Purdy currently ranks sixth at his position in scramble yards and fifth in designed runs.