Best NFL Picks Today

Jadarian Price didn't catch a lot of balls at Notre Dame, but new OC Brian Fleury could change that. He comes from the Kyle Shanahan school, where Christian McCaffrey had a higher target share than CeeDee Lamb last season. Sam Darnold has talked about Price's pass-catching skills, and so has his own defense after Price burned them deep at 7-on-7s. If the Seahawks can't get the first-round rookie going on the ground against a tough New England run unit, look for Fleury to get Price going in the pass game. Kenneth Walker saw 3+ targets in nine of his last 11 games last season, and 3+ grabs is certainly live Wednesday. With Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet out, Price will get a ton of snaps and projects for 1.89 receptions. I'd play this to -105.

Los Angeles standout WR Puka Nacua is expected to make the in-and-out trip to Australia in Week 1. That’s bad news for new 49ers defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. San Francisco leaned toward more zone coverage in 2025 and will almost exclusively go zone under Morris. The 6-foot-2 Nacua rates out among the top WRs versus zone at PFF and knocked Morris’ former club, Atlanta, for a touchdown at the end of last season while also scoring in both matchup with the Niners. The uncertainty around his status and a lingering hip injury has tempered Nacua’s touchdown market, but player models sit as high as 53% for him to strike in Melbourne on Thursday night/Friday morning.

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

The Cleveland Browns enter the year with massive questions on offense, with PFF rating them dead last in its offensive power rankings, though they remain solid on defense. With two solid defenses and Cleveland's atrocious offense, this promises to be one of the lowest-scoring games of Week 1. I like the Under at totals down to 38.5 points.

The Lions have led the NFL in home scoring in back-to-back seasons and are coming off a year in which they averaged 32.5 points per game in Detroit. While they should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting to push this game Over 48.5, don't sleep on the Saints offense who made some major upgrades this offseason. Kellen Moore has been the arcitect of some great offenses on his way to becoming head coach of New Orleans. Expect his strengths to be on full display with a talented group of playmakers at his disposal.

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

The blitz-heavy Vikings will face a Packers offensive line with question marks beside starters Aaron Banks (knee) and Zach Bako-Bewele (knee), and Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love dipped to a pedestrian 41.6 completion percentage for 5.0 yards per target when pressured last season. Playing without key starters Micah Parsons (knee) and Josh Jacobs (Reserve-CEL) will aslo be a huge hit to the Packers. On the flip side, Minnesota quarterback Kyler Murray has a top-tier receiver corps at his disposal for the first time of his career, and his 67.1 career completion percentage and mobility will thrive in head coach Kevin O'Connell’s offense.

There’s too much Washington optimism in this line. The Eagles are the more talented team on both sides of the ball, and I’m particularly expecting this to be on display most in the trenches. Washington finished last in quarterback hurries per dropback in 2025, while Philly was able to finish 14th in both sacks and pressure percentage despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate. As a result, I'm anticipating Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels to have his hands full on the road against a Philly defense that doesn’t need to blitz to generate pressure. He also threw for a pedistrian 3.8 aDoT and was pressured on 28.2% of his dropbacks during his only start at Lincoln Financial Field in 2024.

With the Giants in transition mode under new head coach John Harbaugh, I’m happy to take the Cowboys below the key number of 3. The Dallas offense has oodles of continuity after averaging 27.7 points per game last season, and the offseason commitment to bringing in talent on the defensive side of the ball will provide an upgrade to a stop unit that allowed the third-most yards and most points per game.  I also anticipate this game closing with Dallas as at least a -3 favorite ahead of Sunday Night Football.

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.