Patriots @ Jets Picks & Props

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has given up a whopping 1.07 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 4th-highest rate in the league. This year, the strong Patriots run defense has yielded a puny 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL. As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's group of safeties has been excellent this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots. The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line in this contest (12.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played). Rhamondre Stevenson has accumulated many more air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (-3.0 per game). When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year. This year, the shaky Jets defense has given up a staggering 0.53 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots. With a top-tier 29.7% Red Zone Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry rates as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league. Hunter Henry has notched a massive 43.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year. Hunter Henry grades out in the 87th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.35 per game.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots. With a sizeable 17.2% Red Zone Target Rate (76th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs has been among the wideouts with the highest volume near the end zone in football. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year. Stefon Diggs's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 84.1%.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. This year, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a colossal 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL. This year, the strong Patriots run defense has yielded a puny 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL. As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's group of safeties has been excellent this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. The projections expect Jeremy Ruckert to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone in this game (9.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.9% in games he has played). Jeremy Ruckert's 85.1% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a significant gain in his receiving talent over last season's 66.4% rate. This year, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a colossal 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. When talking about air yards, Breece Hall grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among RBs this year, accruing a superb 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards). Breece Hall's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 76.7% to 89.2%. This year, the strong Patriots run defense has yielded a puny 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Patriots. When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year. The Jets defense has been gouged for the 4th-most TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.80 per game this year.