David Sills V Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
D. Sills V
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Falcons @ Cardinals Picks & Props
ATL vs ARI Picks
NFL Picks
Total
o47.5 (-118)
Ed Scimia
Betting Analyst
There’s enough offensive talent here – and little enough defense – that this could quickly turn into a shootout, with both teams getting on the scoreboard plenty. I’m taking the Over.
Passing Attempts
Jacoby Brissett o36.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
Brissett has thrown the ball at least 40 times in six straight contests, averaging a whopping 45.7 pass attempts per game over that span. The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have practically abandoned that part of their offense They are second in the NFL in passing play percentage (65.4%) with that number sky-rocketing to 72.5% over the last six weeks. Arizona is hosting the Falcons on Sunday in a warm and sunny day at State Farm Stadium. That should lead to plenty of throwing from a pair of teams with nothing to play for except pride.
Score a Touchdown
David Sills V Score a Touchdown (Yes: +400)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
David Sills is coming off a breakout performance with double-digit targets, 78 yards, and two red-zone looks. The matchup sets up well indoors against a defense that has allowed more than 100 points over its last three games. The main variable is the status of Drake London. London has missed four straight games and returned to practice this week in a limited capacity, with his coach calling him day to day. With the team already eliminated, there’s little incentive to rush him back. Even if London plays, Sills should still maintain a role, especially with Kirk Cousins coming off a 373-yard, three-touchdown outing. There’s risk baked in, but the price reflects it. If London is ruled out, this projects closer to +250, and if he plays, +350 still looks like a fair number.
Total
o47.5 (-110)
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
The Cardinals are fifth in the NFL in pace, while the Falcons are seventh, and with both teams eliminated from the playoffs, expect unenthusiastic tackling down the stretch. Arizona is 8-2 O/U in its 10 games while Atlanta has gone Over the total in six of its last seven. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive dropback success rate, which is bad news against a pass-happy Arizona attack that has been slinging the ball with Jacoby Brissett. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 31st in defensive success rate and have surrendered more than 40 points in four of their last six games. They are 25th in DVOA against the run, so Bijan Robinson will rip off big plays on the ground.
Receptions Made
Drake London o5.5 Receptions Made (+111)
Projection 6.52 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.2 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Drake London to garner 10.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.. With an exceptional 32.2% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. Drake London rates as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 5.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins o227.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 249.37 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.2 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
Passing Yards
Jacoby Brissett o255.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 263.71 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.7% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.2 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. Jacoby Brissett has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (237.0) this season than he did last season (126.0).
Receiving Yards
Marvin Harrison Jr. o48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 67.45 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.9% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.8 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
Receiving Yards
Drake London o73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 85.36 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.2 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Drake London to garner 10.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.. With an exceptional 32.2% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. In regards to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a whopping 100.0 per game.
Receiving Yards
Kyle Pitts Sr. o53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 59.45 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.2 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Kyle Pitts's 91.5% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a meaningful growth in his passing game usage over last season's 75.7% rate.. The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been gouged for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (66.0) vs. TEs this year.
Receiving Yards
Trey McBride u74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 69.59 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.. The Arizona offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.. Trey McBride's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.62 figure last season.. This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a puny 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-fewest in football.. The Falcons pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.7%) vs. TEs this year (69.7%).
Receiving Yards
Michael Wilson o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 63.71 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.7% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.2 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.
Rushing Yards
Kirk Cousins o0.5 Rushing Yards (+160)
Projection 1.67 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to run on 45.7% of their downs: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.2 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. This year, the tough Cardinals run defense has surrendered a meager 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 29th-smallest rate in the league.. The Arizona defensive ends profile as the 4th-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
Rushing Yards
Jacoby Brissett o12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 20.14 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.2 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. Jacoby Brissett has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this season (14.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.6%).. With a terrific record of 2.11 yards-after-contact (78th percentile), Jacoby Brissett rates among the leading running QBs in the NFL this year.. The Atlanta defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
ATL vs ARI Consensus Picks
ATL vs ARI Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
KhaDarel Hodge Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
K. Hodge
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Tyler Allgeier Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
T. Allgeier
running back RB • Atlanta
Feleipe Franks Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
F. Franks
tight end TE • Atlanta
Kirk Cousins Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
K. Cousins
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Jalen Brooks Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
J. Brooks
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Teagan Quitoriano Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
T. Quitoriano
tight end TE • Atlanta
Jacoby Brissett Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
J. Brissett
quarterback QB • Arizona
Casey Washington Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
C. Washington
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Dylan Drummond Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
D. Drummond
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Trey McBride Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
T. McBride
tight end TE • Arizona
Malik Heath Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
M. Heath
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Charlie Woerner Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
C. Woerner
tight end TE • Atlanta
Bijan Robinson Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
B. Robinson
running back RB • Atlanta
Xavier Weaver Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
X. Weaver
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Drake London Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Michael Wilson Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
M. Wilson
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Darnell Mooney Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
D. Mooney
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Kyle Pitts Sr. Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
K. Pitts Sr.
tight end TE • Atlanta
Nathan Carter Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
N. Carter
running back RB • Atlanta
Josiah Deguara Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
J. Deguara
tight end TE • Arizona
Elijah Higgins Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
E. Higgins
tight end TE • Arizona
Jamal Agnew Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
J. Agnew
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Deven Thompkins Score a Touchdown Props • Atlanta
D. Thompkins
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Pharaoh Brown Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
P. Brown
tight end TE • Arizona
Emari Demercado Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
E. Demercado
running back RB • Arizona
Corey Kiner Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
C. Kiner
running back RB • Arizona
Marvin Harrison Jr. Score a Touchdown Props • Arizona
M. Harrison Jr.
wide receiver WR • Arizona
ATL vs ARI Trends
Atlanta Trends
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 20% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 22% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.45 Units / 12% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Over
Under
The Atlanta Falcons have only hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 20 games (-14.00 Units / -43% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Atlanta Falcons have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 17 games (-10.28 Units / -44% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Atlanta Falcons have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 19 games (-8.80 Units / -41% ROI)
Over
Under
The Atlanta Falcons have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (-6.80 Units / -30% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have only covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 17 games (-6.67 Units / -34% ROI)
ATL
ARI
Arizona Trends
The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.30 Units / 19% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Over
Under
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 46% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+4.00 Units / 27% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 18% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have only hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 20 games (-11.41 Units / -38% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Arizona Cardinals have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 17 games (-11.05 Units / -56% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-6.90 Units / -59% ROI)
ATL
ARI
The Arizona Cardinals have only hit the 1H Team Total Under in 2 of their last 10 games at home (-6.65 Units / -60% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have only covered the 2H Spread in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-4.82 Units / -52% ROI)
ATL
ARI
