The Broncos have the second-best sack rate in the NFL, and Lawrence will need to get rid of the ball quicker than usual. That means fewer downfield throws and more targets to his tight end. He's been targeted 18 times in his four games back from injury, and had five catches for 93 yards against the Cardinals. The Cardinals and Broncos have similar performance against tight ends, and things are lining up for Strange to top 50 yards and easily clear his total.
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a six-touchdown performance, and Brian Thomas looks back to his 2025 form. He found the end zone last week and led the team in red-zone usage with three targets, including two inside the 10. It's a great price, and with Jakobi Meyers likely drawing defensive attention and the market still lagging on Thomas, Week 16 sets up as a strong buy spot. For a receiver who scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, +200 or better is a number worth taking.
Lawrence has a big “prove it” game in Denver and takes on an elite defense that gets even stingier in the red zone. We’re seeing him have more freedom to tuck and run in Liam Coen’s offense, which has led to six rushing touchdowns, including one last week against the Jets. He’s third among QB in RZ carries with 19 behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, yet doesn’t carry the same ATTD prices as those dual-threats
The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven, and has hit in Denver's last three. And I love it to hit again here.
Jacksonville hasn’t been held under 25 points since the bye week, and Denver’s run defense has been leaky the past few weeks, and that will let the Jaguars move the ball. Add in Little’s leg and they should score anytime they get near midfield.
Nix won’t push the ball downfield like some teams do against the Jaguars, but Denver’s quick-pass scheme will help him keep drives alive and negate some of the pass rush ability of the Jaguars. He’ll also put together enough drives against a defense that struggles to get stops on third and five or less.
As long as I'm getting a flat three points, I'm taking the Jaguars to cover.
The Jags have covered in five straight, beating the spread by an average of 16.6 points in that span. Trevor Lawrence is red-hot, throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns in the seven games since the bye week.
The Broncos are showing weaknesses on defense of late, especially against the run. And their comeback over the Packers this weekend was aided by a rash of injuries to their opponent. Bo Nix can't consistently throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, which negates Jacksonville's biggest issue on defense.
The oddsmakers have been underestimating the Jaguars for some time now, and with Cam Little's "in the stadium" range and the thin Mile High air, I'll back the visitors to keep this one very close in what should be a tight affair.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (63.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Broncos.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.1 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 59.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 13th percentile.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Broncos defense this year (65.4% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a meager 7.1 yards.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (63.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Broncos.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.1 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (63.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Broncos.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.1 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Travis Etienne is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.0 targets.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.. Courtland Sutton has notched far fewer air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).. Courtland Sutton's 56.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 68.1.. Courtland Sutton's 54.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a significant reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year's 73.0 figure.. Courtland Sutton's skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 2.11 figure last year.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.1 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.1 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After making up 10.3% of his offense's carries last season, Trevor Lawrence has been called on more in the run game this season, now sitting at 16.2%.. Trevor Lawrence has rushed for many more yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).. The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
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