Elic Ayomanor Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
E. Ayomanor
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
Chiefs @ Titans Picks & Props
KC vs TEN Picks
NFL Picks
Passing Yards
Cam Ward u179.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Ward has cashed the Under in passing yards in three straight appearances, finishing with 170 yards through the air last weekend in a loss to the 49ers. While the Chiefs may be missing the playoffs, they’re still fifth in fewest total yards allowed.
Score a Touchdown
Isiah Pacheco Score a Touchdown (Yes: +300)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The Chiefs may be out of the playoff picture, but there’s no sign they’re packing it in. Isiah Pacheco’s role near the goal line remains encouraging after he handled five of the team’s seven red-zone carries last week and led the backfield with 11 total rushes. The efficiency wasn’t there, but the matchup improves significantly against Tennessee. Losing a more creative quarterback in the red zone and turning to Gardner Minshew should also funnel more looks to the run game. I make the fair price on this closer to +190 to +200.
Receptions Made
Tony Pollard u1.5 Receptions Made (+110)
Projection 1.28 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Titans to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.9 plays per game.. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.7 per game) this year.. Tony Pollard's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 18.1.. The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Passing Yards
Gardner Minshew o210.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Projection 221.76 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.. This year, the poor Titans defense has surrendered a whopping 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-worst rate in the league.. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, yielding 8.80 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in football.
Receiving Yards
Xavier Worthy o42.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
Projection 55.45 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.. This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a colossal 9.82 yards.
Receiving Yards
Rashee Rice o56.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 74.06 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. Rashee Rice has gone out for fewer passes this season (76.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (65.1%).. In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.7 targets.. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Chimere Dike o30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 37.73 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3-point underdogs.. The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.3%) to WRs this year (67.3%).
Receiving Yards
Tony Pollard o6.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 8.18 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3-point underdogs.. When it comes to air yards, Tony Pollard ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a whopping 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 81.7%.. Tony Pollard's receiving effectiveness has been refined this season, notching 5.34 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 4.24 rate last season.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.6%) to running backs this year (85.6%).
Receiving Yards
Kareem Hunt o8.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 10.05 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.. This year, the weak Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a massive 7.20 yards.. The Titans safeties rank as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
Rushing Yards
Cam Ward o7.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
Projection 13.71 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Rushing Yards
Kareem Hunt o27.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 37.34 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. The opposing side have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Rushing Yards
Gardner Minshew o5.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Projection 10.51 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. While Gardner Minshew has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Kansas City's run game in this week's contest at 10.0%.. The opposing side have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
KC vs TEN Consensus Picks
KC vs TEN Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
Van Jefferson Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
V. Jefferson
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
Travis Kelce Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Elijah Mitchell Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
E. Mitchell
running back RB • Kansas City
Chimere Dike Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
C. Dike
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
JuJu Smith-Schuster Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
J. Smith-Schuster
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Xavier Worthy Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
X. Worthy
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Isiah Pacheco Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
I. Pacheco
running back RB • Kansas City
Nikko Remigio Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
N. Remigio
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Noah Gray Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
N. Gray
tight end TE • Kansas City
Mason Kinsey Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
M. Kinsey
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
Kalel Mullings Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
K. Mullings
running back RB • Tennessee
Kareem Hunt Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Tony Pollard Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
T. Pollard
running back RB • Tennessee
Rashee Rice Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
R. Rice
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Tyjae Spears Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
T. Spears
running back RB • Tennessee
Hollywood Brown Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
H. Brown
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Gardner Minshew Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
G. Minshew
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Gunnar Helm Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
G. Helm
tight end TE • Tennessee
James Proche II Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
J. Proche II
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
Jared Wiley Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
J. Wiley
tight end TE • Kansas City
Chig Okonkwo Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
C. Okonkwo
tight end TE • Tennessee
David Martin-Robinson Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
D. Martin-Robinson
tight end TE • Tennessee
Jalen Royals Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
J. Royals
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Julius Chestnut Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
J. Chestnut
running back RB • Tennessee
Robert Tonyan Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
R. Tonyan
tight end TE • Kansas City
Cam Ward Score a Touchdown Props • Tennessee
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Tyquan Thornton Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
T. Thornton
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Brashard Smith Score a Touchdown Props • Kansas City
B. Smith
running back RB • Kansas City
KC vs TEN Trends
Kansas City Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.30 Units / 21% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.34 Units / 10% ROI)
KC
TEN
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.75 Units / 26% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 11 away games (-11.58 Units / -65% ROI)
KC
TEN
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 18 games (-9.81 Units / -48% ROI)
Over
Under
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 1H Team Total Over in 8 of their last 22 games (-9.25 Units / -35% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 20 games (-8.95 Units / -28% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the Team Total Over in 2 of their last 11 away games (-8.35 Units / -65% ROI)
Tennessee Trends
The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Over
Under
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 22% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+4.04 Units / 23% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Over
Under
The Tennessee Titans have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 19 games (-13.25 Units / -63% ROI)
KC
TEN
The Tennessee Titans have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 17 games (-12.05 Units / -69% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have only hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 20 games (-10.42 Units / -46% ROI)
KC
TEN
The Tennessee Titans have only covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 19 games (-8.95 Units / -41% ROI)
KC
TEN
