Kenneth Walker is getting more love in the Seahawks offense and coming off one of his busiest days, with a near 65% carry share and a 15% target share. While he didn’t score against the Titans, he did get some goal line runs but the line collapsed on those scoring chances. He could get lots of run vs. the Vikings, considering their QB situation, and a banged-up front seven.
Score First Touchdown
Justin Jefferson Score First Touchdown (Yes: +1600)
If conversations had taken a different turn earlier in the year, Sam Darnold would have been on the opposite sideline on Sunday instead of marshalling the Seattle offense.
Darnold has done little to fan the flames as he prepares to face his former team, but it feels safe to assume he’ll have a little extra motivation heading into this Week 13 clash. With that in mind, I’m taking the Over on this passing yards total, and Darnold has breezed past this number in six of his last eight contests.
I don’t care if JJ McCarthy misses this game with a concussion — he’s been historically bad. Max Brosmer just needs to get the ball in Justin Jefferson’s direction, and it’s hard to imagine him being any worse than McCarthy. Jefferson was +200 last week against Green Bay and was as short as even money two games ago. The offense is bad, but it’s been bad all year, and he’ll still see near double-digit targets with plenty of trailing game script. Even with a quarterback change, this number looks about 70 cents too long.
Things look bleak for the Vikings passing game, with undrafted rookie Max Brosmer likely getting the sacrificial start in Seattle. The Seahawks pass pressure won’t give him much time in the pocket and Kevin O’Connell will lean on Jones as a quick and easy receiving option to help get Brosmer going early as well as avoid pressure. Jones has been targeted more in recent games, with 16 targets for nine catches the past three games. Seahawks have allowed the fifth most rec yds to RBs this season and Jones’ projections sit as high as 22 yards in Week 13.
J.J. McCarthy finished 12-for-19 passing for a measly 87 yards along with two interceptions in the road loss at Green Bay in Week 12. The Vikings has failed to crack 20 points in three straight games and now head to Lumen Field to take on another elite defense. The Seahawks got a bit of a scare in Tennessee on Sunday but still limited the Titans to 17 points on offense, checking them to 4.4 yards per play and sacking rookie QB Cam Ward four times. Sam Darnold takes on his former club and needs to be wary of the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes. That means quicker hits and lots of handoffs, with little time in the pocket for deeper strikes to develop. This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and is already sinking like a stone in the opening hours of action. Grab the Under 43.5 now, as the next stop is 42.5 with little reason to like the Over.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has earned 27.5% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Seattle's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest at 35.6%.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (121.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 92.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 57.6.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been one of the best possession receivers in football, catching a stellar 76.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year.. The Minnesota O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year.. The Minnesota O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.. Sam Darnold's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.2% to 69.8%.. With an exceptional 8.81 adjusted yards-per-target (100th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold rates among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer.. Kenneth Walker III's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.24 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.07 figure last season.. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year.. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.4% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year.. In this contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.3 targets.
This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 11.5 points.. The model projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Sam Darnold's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 6.90 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 5.20 figure last year.. This year, the deficient Vikings run defense has allowed a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 8th-most in the league.
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