Egbuka has cashed the Over in catches in four of his last six appearances, reeling in four grabs last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Egbuka is averaging 4.3 receptions on the road compared to 4.0 at home, and the Buccaneers are visiting the Panthers on Sunday.
While Mayfield has actually cashed the Under in passing yards in four of his last five games, he did throw for 277 yards last time out against the Atlanta Falcons, and we have to factor in that he’s facing his former team here. Since the Panthers cut ties with Mayfield, he’s 4-0 against them, and he hit the Over in passing yards in a win over Carolina last season.
Dowdle has hit the Under in rushing yards in five consecutive games, failing to surpass the 58-yard mark in each of those games. Dowdle ran for only 49 yards in Week 15. While Dowdle has rushed for almost 100 yards per game at home, it’s hard for me to look at the Over and see any value due to his inconsistencies right now. Plus, the Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed.
The Panthers have been gashed through the air the past two games for a 68.9 completion percentage and 8.44 yards per target while allowing the fifth-highest dropback success rate and ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. Now that Mayfield has his full receiving corps back on the field, he can pick apart a Carolina defense generating QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and ranking 31st in PFF pass rush grade.
Jalen McMillan eased back into the lineup in Week 15, running about half the routes and drawing two targets that turned into 38 yards. That usage could climb this week against a Carolina defense that’s struggled, especially if the game environment tilts toward another shootout. ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler expects McMillan’s role to grow in his second game back, noting that the coaching staff is encouraged by what they saw. With Emeka Egbuka showing signs of a rookie wall, McMillan is a candidate for an expanded workload. I’m interested in McMillan as a touchdown play up to +350, but if the price shortens, I’d rather pivot to Chris Godwin at +275 or better.
Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes.
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Mike Evans's 62.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 69.7.. Mike Evans's pass-catching performance diminished this year, accumulating a mere 3.3 adjusted catches vs 5.2 last year.. This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a feeble 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.
A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.7. . Baker Mayfield has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (188.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).. Baker Mayfield's throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 71.1% to 61.4%.
The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 126.6 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The model projects Bryce Young to throw 32.4 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.. With a subpar 6.66 adjusted yards-per-target (17th percentile) this year, Bryce Young has been as one of the least effective QBs in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 126.6 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The model projects Bryce Young to throw 32.5 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.. Tampa Bay's defense ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year as it relates to producing interceptions, averaging 0.87 per game.
A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Mike Evans's 62.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 69.7.. Mike Evans has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).. This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a feeble 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.
A passing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this game.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up a staggering 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 10th-worst rate in the league.. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to run on 45.4% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. With a stellar tally of 6.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (79th percentile), Bryce Young stands as one of the leading rushing QBs in the NFL this year.
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