Emeka Egbuka o3.5 Receptions Made (+112)
Egbuka has cashed the Over in catches in four of his last six appearances, reeling in four grabs last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Egbuka is averaging 4.3 receptions on the road compared to 4.0 at home, and the Buccaneers are visiting the Panthers on Sunday.
Baker Mayfield o228.5 Passing Yards (-114)
While Mayfield has actually cashed the Under in passing yards in four of his last five games, he did throw for 277 yards last time out against the Atlanta Falcons, and we have to factor in that he’s facing his former team here. Since the Panthers cut ties with Mayfield, he’s 4-0 against them, and he hit the Over in passing yards in a win over Carolina last season.
Rico Dowdle u58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Dowdle has hit the Under in rushing yards in five consecutive games, failing to surpass the 58-yard mark in each of those games. Dowdle ran for only 49 yards in Week 15. While Dowdle has rushed for almost 100 yards per game at home, it’s hard for me to look at the Over and see any value due to his inconsistencies right now. Plus, the Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed.
Baker Mayfield o224.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Panthers have been gashed through the air the past two games for a 68.9 completion percentage and 8.44 yards per target while allowing the fifth-highest dropback success rate and ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. Now that Mayfield has his full receiving corps back on the field, he can pick apart a Carolina defense generating QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and ranking 31st in PFF pass rush grade.
Jalen McMillan Score a Touchdown (Yes: +550)
Jalen McMillan eased back into the lineup in Week 15, running about half the routes and drawing two targets that turned into 38 yards. That usage could climb this week against a Carolina defense that’s struggled, especially if the game environment tilts toward another shootout. ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler expects McMillan’s role to grow in his second game back, noting that the coaching staff is encouraged by what they saw. With Emeka Egbuka showing signs of a rookie wall, McMillan is a candidate for an expanded workload. I’m interested in McMillan as a touchdown play up to +350, but if the price shortens, I’d rather pivot to Chris Godwin at +275 or better.
o45.5 (-104)
Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes.
Total PicksTB 482, CAR 288
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
A passing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (59.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Panthers. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year. The Buccaneers defense has given up the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.64 per game this year. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
A passing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (59.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Panthers. Rico Dowdle ranks in the 78th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) with a massive 13.6 figure this year. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89%) versus running backs this year (89.0%).
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate. Mike Evans has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.0% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts. Mike Evans has compiled far more air yards this season (122.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).
A passing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (59.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Panthers. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate. The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.3%) versus tight ends this year (79.3%).
A passing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (59.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Panthers. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 8th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.71 per game this year. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate. Accounting for a measly 0.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year (2nd percentile among quarterbacks), Baker Mayfield's immobility makes him no threat with his legs near the end zone.
Tampa Bay TrendsCarolina Trends| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CRS | 8-2-0 | +6650 |
| 2 | Jackson2399 | 10-0-0 | +6600 |
| 3 | Guppy_Puppy | 7-3-0 | +6250 |
| 4 | isuxn2 | 8-2-0 | +5850 |
| 5 | ronebme | 8-2-0 | +5600 |
| 6 | dirtyharry57 | 7-2-1 | +5200 |
| 7 | QDMC | 8-2-0 | +5120 |
| 8 | TwoDrunk2Bunt | 6-3-1 | +5100 |
| 9 | Skater4Life | 8-1-1 | +5050 |
| 10 | muna624 | 7-3-0 | +5050 |
| All Buccaneers Money Leaders | |||
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PlusOdds | 9-1-0 | +6350 |
| 2 | FBI007 | 10-0-0 | +5900 |
| 3 | dirtyharry57 | 7-3-0 | +5700 |
| 4 | sherriffics | 6-4-0 | +5650 |
| 5 | sake | 8-2-0 | +5550 |
| 6 | ckope1 | 7-3-0 | +5350 |
| 7 | teslaxyz | 7-3-0 | +5050 |
| 8 | samua | 7-3-0 | +5050 |
| 9 | DODBUCKSTEEL | 8-2-0 | +4850 |
| 10 | Unstoppable Force | 7-3-0 | +4800 |
| All Panthers Money Leaders | |||
