Lions @ Rams Picks & Props

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Jahmyr Gibbs's play as a receiver has gotten better this season, compiling 4.2 adjusted catches vs a mere 3.0 last season.

The Rams are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.7 plays per game. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has given up a measly 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

Anthony Firkser has been not been very involved his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of just 0.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 22nd percentile among TEs. In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Lions grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

The Rams are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.7 plays per game. Colby Parkinson has been less involved as a potential target this year (31.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (53.0%). The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) versus TEs this year (67.4%). The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off. Kyren Williams has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 70.6% of snaps compared to 86.6% last season. In this contest, Kyren Williams is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.0 targets.

Terrance Ferguson has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Davante Adams has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jameson Williams has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Smith has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Blake Corum has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Davis Allen has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Isaac TeSlaa has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Tutu Atwell has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 7 games.