TeSlaa could jump up in the WR depth chart if Kalif Raymond is out or limited. He’s made the most of his limited targets the past two games, snatching four of five balls his way for a total of 55 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams secondary has given up some big gains through the air and TeSlaa tops the Lions in air yards per reception. His Week 15 projections range from 15 yards to 26.5 with most models north of 20 yards receiving. Los Angeles will have to pick its poison between St. Brown and Williams, leaving the 6-foot-4 TeSlaa to find gaps in the L.A. zone schemes.
With Detroit’s battered, inexperienced secondary bleeding explosives and Puka Nacua/Davante Adams demanding attention, Atwell’s return puts him in a perfect low-volume, big-play spot to turn one deep shot into a touchdown.
Detroit’s banged-up secondary is getting torched by explosive pass plays, and that sets up Stafford and the Rams to lean even more on the air game for a big passing day.
The weakest link in L.A.'s defense is its secondary which is something that Lions No. 1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown can exploit. The All-Pro wideout has racked up 31 touchdowns in 46 games over the last three seasons. With his solid frame, strong hands, and elite route-running, St. Brown is the Lions go-to receiver when they get near the goal line. He's second in the league red-zone targets with 20, while corralling 14 of them for eight TDs. St. Brown's already high target share has gotten even higher over the last few weeks after tight end Sam LaPorta suffered a season-ending injury.
Kyren Williams has scored 11 touchdowns in 13 games this season. The Pro Bowl running back has punched the ball into the end zone in five of his last six contests. He faces a Lions defense that has struggled lately, surrendering 29.3 points per game over the last three weeks. The Rams have the most efficient offense in the league in terms of DVOA, EPA, and success rate. They'll be able to march down the field where Williams will find paydirt.
Puka Nacua isn't at the record-setting pace he was at earlier this season but the Rams have been using him more on deep routes. The superstar WR has hauled in a reception of at least 30 yards in each of his last three games. He should torch a Lions defense that that has surrendered the second-most explosive pass plays (47) in the NFL. Detroit's secondary will be even worse down the stretch with both starting safeties and cornerback Terrion Arnold sidelined by injuries.
The Lions have surrendered at least 30 points in back-to-back games. Their defense started the season strong but has regressed, ranking 27th in the league in dropback EPA since the beginning of November. Detroit's secondary has been decimated by injuries to Pro Bowl safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, and corner Terrion Arnold. The Rams lead the league in EPA/play and success rate with MVP favorite Matthew Stafford at the helm. With Stafford slinging the ball to a loaded WR corps, the Rams have dropped 34+ points in five of their last seven games.
Getting Colby Parkinson at better than +200 when he’s scored in four of his last five games is a great value. He’s not the top option in the passing game, but he’s reliably seeing around five targets a game, and half of his looks over the last three weeks have come in the red zone. This matchup has the potential to reach 50-plus points with both offenses scoring indoors. Among all pass catchers in this game, Parkinson offers the best value. The LA running back prices have stabilized, and Detroit continues to concentrate usage around its usual playmakers with Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy.
Los Angeles has almost no home-field edge at SoFi Stadium, especially against teams like the Lions, who have widespread fanbases and travel well. There will be no shortage of Honolulu Blue in the stands this Sunday. The Lions should be able to grind out gains on the ground but exploit a soft secondary for L.A. with a talent group of receivers.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. With an exceptional rate of 250.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Matthew Stafford rates as one of the leading passers in the league this year.. This year, the weak Detroit Lions defense has yielded a massive 241.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst in the league.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. Kyren Williams has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 70.6% of snaps compared to 86.6% last season.. In this contest, Kyren Williams is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.0 targets.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. The model projects Puka Nacua to accrue 11.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.. This year, the porous Lions defense has yielded a colossal 166.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 5th-worst in the NFL.
The Rams are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. Jared Goff's 6.22 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year conveys a substantial boost in his rushing talent over last year's 3.58 rate.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 4th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.. The leading projections forecast Jared Goff to notch 1.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance: the fewest among all quarterbacks.. Jared Goff is not much of a rusher and has accounted for a measly 2.6% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 10th percentile among quarterbacks.
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