Buccaneers @ Rams Picks & Props

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.40 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. With a high 15.7% Red Zone Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Colby Parkinson stands among the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL. Colby Parkinson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.2% to 89.7%.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.40 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (58.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. This week, Matthew Stafford is anticipated by our trusted projection set to average the 5th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.7. Matthew Stafford has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 2.45 per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs. Kyren Williams has totaled significantly more air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (-2.0 per game).

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. The projections expect Puka Nacua to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.0% in games he has played). After averaging 75.0 air yards per game last season, Puka Nacua has made big progress this season, currently boasting 83.0 per game.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. The predictive model expects Cade Otton to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line in this game (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.7% in games he has played).

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. In this week's contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projection model to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.3. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.