Matthew Stafford hasn't been throwing much to his backs in recent weeks but that might change here. Kyren Williams could have a tough time finding running room against a stout Bucs run defense but Sean McVay will still look to get the ball into the hands of his talented RB. Williams had just one catch on two targets for five yards last week. However, he has still logged 10+ receiving yards in seven of his last nine games. That includes a Week 5 clash against the 49ers where he reeled in eight catches for 66 yards. The Bucs are vulnerable against pass-catching backs, allowing a a league-high 59.6 receiving yards per game to the position.
Mayfield led the league with 4,500 passing yards last season. He's been limited by a banged-up group of receivers this season but has still thrown for more than 250 yards in four of his last seven games. WR Chris Godwin is expected to return to Tampa Bay's lineup on Sunday after a two-month absence. Even if he's on a snap count, he should open things up for Emeka Egbuka and the other receivers. L.A. is a 7-point home favorite which should lead to a negative game script and high passing volume from the Bucs. That's been a theme for the 8-2 Rams who have allowed the fifth-most pass attempts per game (36.4).
The Rams won't be able to run the ball at will against Tampa's tough run stop, but Sean McVay needs to find a way to get the ball in Williams' hands. He's proven a capable pass catcher and projections for his receiving yards sit as high as 17+. The Bucs may limit RBs on the ground but because of that, foes have found other ways to get those guys involved. Tampa Bay has allowed the most receiving yards to running backs on the season. Last week, Buffalo couldn't get RB James Cook going on the ground but he did catch three passes for 66 yards.
Egbuka's player projections for Week 12 are very positive, given game script, the tall total, and fast track inside SoFi Stadium. All but one model consulted comes in above 70 yards with the bulk of those forecasts at 73 or higher with a ceiling of 82 yards from our Covers.com projections. The Rams run one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the league, which sets up well for Mayfield and Egbukja. Tampa Bay’s passer sees his output spike versus zone, including the third best passer rating against zone coverage among QBs (108.7). Mayfield also sees an uptick in rating when playing inside. In turn, Egbuka also sees a jump in rating versus zone defense. He’s been the Bucs best zone buster and sits 17th among all wide receivers versus zone schemes at PFF.
Stafford is sixth in the league in passing yards (2,557) while boasting the highest passing grade (92.2) per PFF. The MVP favorite threw for 281 yards against New Orleans in Week 9 before racking up 280 yards versus San Fran in Week 10. He was limited to just 130 passing yards against Seattle last week but should bounce back against a Tampa Bay defense that has been a passing funnel. While the Bucs are second in the league in defensive rush success rate, they rank 22nd in defensive dropback success rate. They are 27th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (241.6) with that number ballooning to 261.8 on the road.
I’m running back last week’s best TD hit and taking Colby Parkinson to score for a third straight game at a big number. Matthew Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line, and Parkinson has five red-zone targets over his last three games, including at least one inside the 10 in all three. You won’t see much of him between the 20s — his work comes when it matters. Parkinson leads all Rams tight ends with eight red-zone targets this season, and Stafford has thrown seven red-zone touchdowns to the position. This is the right profile at the right price.
In most universes, Seattle beats the Rams in Week 11 and L.A.’s Week 12 spread looks a little different – likely coming out below the key number of six. Los Angeles’ defense was on the field for almost 38 minutes last Sunday and we’ve seen this stop unit soften a bit in recent games, especially against the pass. The Rams have given up more than 600 yards through the air on 75% completions the past two outings. Now they take on a Tampa Bay team that can score with the best of them – even when it’s not at full strength. The Bucs may have some big guns back with RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin picking up more practice reps in hopes of avoiding a three-game slide. As for the Tampa defense, it continues to shut the door on opposing rushing attacks. It checked the Bills’ No. 1 run game to only 97 yards and 40 of those gains came from QB Josh Allen, which should throw a wrench in Sean McVay’s play-action plans.
Tampa Bay was down WR Chris Godwin and RB Bucky Irving but both players put in limited practice work last week, which trends toward a positive status versus the Rams on Sunday Night Football. Los Angeles is coming of a grueling divisional battle with the Seahawks’ stingy defense in Week 11. The Rams only had the ball for 22:11 and totaled just 249 yards, yet somehow won 21-19 – thanks in part of turnovers and a missed game-winning field goal from Seattle. The Bucs defense doesn’t pose as much of a threat. Tampa Bay allowed 317 passing yards and three touchdowns to Josh Allen, so things are looking rosy for Matt Stafford and this L.A. attack. The total opened as low as 49 points, but most books are up to 49.5 with juice on the Over rising, significantly a move to 50 points. Given the next key number is 51, bookies won’t wait to move to 50.5 if Over money keeps coming.
At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Kyren Williams has totaled significantly more air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (-2.0 per game).
A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.. The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.40 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.. The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.40 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (58.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.. In this week's contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projection model to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.3. . Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. With a stellar rate of 244.0 adjusted passing yards per game (89th percentile), Matthew Stafford rates among the top passers in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has allowed a colossal 244.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-worst in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In tallying just 0.26 interceptions per game this year, Baker Mayfield ranks among the leading quarterbacks in the league (86th percentile).. The Los Angeles Rams have intercepted 0.86 balls per game this year, grading out as the 8th-best defense in football by this statistic.. The Rams linebackers project as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.. This year, the anemic Rams defense has given up a staggering 164.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-most in the NFL.
At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (64.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Rams.. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.. Kyren Williams has run a route on 55.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.. This year, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 49.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the most in the NFL.
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