Baker Mayfield Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday Night Football

Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay are struggling right now, and our expert Week 12 SNF predictions expect his woes to continue against the Los Angeles Rams.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 22, 2025 • 08:53 ET • 4 min read
Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Photo By - Imagn Images. Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers


We have a fascinating Sunday Night Football ahead of us with the Buccaneers facing the Rams at SoFi Stadium. The Rams are topping their division, while the Bucs need to stop a two-game losing streak.

Baker Mayfield’s play will be integral to their chances of getting that seventh win of the season, and they need it with the Panthers level on wins with them.

I’ve taken a long look at the Baker Mayfield odds at various sportsbooks to find the very best ways for you to get involved with the Buccaneers’ QB on Sunday Night Football.

Read on for my SNF NFL picks for Sunday, November 23. 

Baker Mayfield prop pick

Baker Mayfield best bet: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-144 at FanDuel)

Earlier in the season, Baker Mayfield was firmly in the MVP conversation and was getting huge plaudits for not only his play, but crucially, his ability to win games late for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Things have really dropped off, though. This is a team that won five of its first six and has now won just once in its past four games.

One of the key reasons for that has been Mayfield’s play, which has been limited by the health of his offense, with several notable absences, including Mike Evans

The breakout of Emeka Egbuka has been impressive, but he’s now getting a lot of attention from opposing defenses.

Over the past four games, Mayfield has thrown just five touchdown passes, with only one of those games seeing the former first overall pick throw multiple touchdown passes.

That’s bad news ahead of a trip to face the Los Angeles Rams, with Sean McVay’s team allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw just 12 touchdown passes against them in 10 games. 

Just one of the Rams’ past five games has seen the opposing QB throw multiple touchdown passes, which is a the tough test that Mayfield needs to overcome on SNF.

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Baker Mayfield same-game parlay

Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

Sean Tucker anytime touchdown

Emeka Egbuka Over 5.5 receptions

Our Baker Mayfield Same-Game Parlay has very tasty odds. In addition to our best bet, we’re backing Sean Tucker to find the endzone. With Irving sidelined, we’ve seen Tucker step into the power back role, with Rachaad White as the receiving back.

He’s seen his usage grow and now has five touchdowns in his past five games, including three past week and a season high 19 carries.

Emeka Egbuka has been a great draft selection since being picked 19th overall this past April. However, after a strong start to the season, he’s not been so efficient of late.

That said, he’s still getting a lot of targets, and although he’s had Under 5.5 in three of his past four games, it’s notable that he’s averaging over 11 targets per game in that time. Eventually these targets will show in his reception line, and with positive regression due, we’ll back him to do it on SNF.

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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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