Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has vaulted to the top of the MVP odds board, and my NFL picks are backing him to have a big game on Sunday night.
Find out more as Stafford highlights my best NFL player props for Week 12.
NFL Week 12 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Breece Hall |
Under 66.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Kenneth Walker III |
Over 61.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Matthew Stafford |
Over 247.5 passing yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 12
Prop pick: Breece Hall Under 66.5 rushing yards
Although Breece Hall is a talented running back, he's been held in check by being on a lousy New York Jets team. Hall was limited to 58 yards on 14 carries last week in a 27-14 loss to the Patriots.
Now the Jets are 13.5-point road underdogs in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens, who are 4-0 with an average scoring margin of +12.8 points per game since Lamar Jackson returned.
Baltimore's defense has made significant strides against the run. Through Week 5, the Ravens had allowed 146.4 rushing yards per game while ranking 32nd in defensive rush EPA. Since then, they have allowed only 96.6 yards per game on the ground while ranking third in defensive rush EPA.
Combine that improved run D with what will likely be a negative game script for the Jets, and I'm fading Hall on his rushing yards prop.
Prop pick: Kenneth Walker III Over 61.5 rushing yards
Kenneth Walker III is coming off a game against a stout Rams run defense, where he rushed for 67 yards on 16 carries. The Seattle Seahawks running back has rushed for 65+ yards in five of his last seven games, and now he gets a favorable matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans.
The Seahawks are 13.5-point favorites, which should lead to a rushing game script against a Titans squad that ranks 26th in DVOA and EPA against the run.
In addition, Seattle has been employing a 55:45 split in carries between Walker and Zach Charbonnet. However, Charbonnet is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush attempt, while Walker has been significantly more efficient with 4.5 ypa.
That could lead to a larger share of the workload for Walker moving forward, especially since head coach Mike Macdonald said that he's "earned more opportunities to get the ball” during Monday's press conference.
Prop pick: Matthew Stafford Over 247.5 passing yards
Matthew Stafford is in his 17th season in the NFL, and this year looks like his best chance of taking home the MVP award. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback is sixth in the league in passing yards (2,557) while boasting the highest passing grade (92.2) per PFF.
Stafford threw for 281 yards against New Orleans in Week 9 before throwing for 280 yards versus San Francisco in Week 10. He was limited to just 130 passing yards against Seattle last week, but the veteran gunslinger should bounce back against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has been a passing funnel.
While the Bucs are second in the league in defensive rush success rate, they rank 22nd in defensive dropback success rate. They are also 27th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (241.6), with that number ballooning to 261.8 on the road.
NFL Week 12 prop betting card
- Hall u66.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Walker o61.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Stafford o247.5 passing yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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