Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has vaulted to the top of the MVP odds board, and my NFL picks are backing him to have a big game on Sunday night.
Find out more as Stafford highlights my best NFL player props for Week 12.
NFL Week 12 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Breece Hall |
Under 66.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Kenneth Walker III |
Over 61.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Matthew Stafford |
Over 247.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Travis Kelce |
Over 51.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Chase Brown |
Over 5.5 receptions | +130 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 12
Prop pick: Breece Hall Under 66.5 rushing yards
Although Breece Hall is a talented running back, he's been held in check by being on a lousy New York Jets team. Hall was limited to 58 yards on 14 carries last week in a 27-14 loss to the Patriots.
Now the Jets are 13.5-point road underdogs in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens, who are 4-0 with an average scoring margin of +12.8 points per game since Lamar Jackson returned.
Baltimore's defense has made significant strides against the run. Through Week 5, the Ravens had allowed 146.4 rushing yards per game while ranking 32nd in defensive rush EPA. Since then, they have allowed only 96.6 yards per game on the ground while ranking third in defensive rush EPA.
Combine that improved run D with what will likely be a negative game script for the Jets, and I'm fading Hall on his rushing yards prop.
Prop pick: Kenneth Walker III Over 61.5 rushing yards
Kenneth Walker III is coming off a game against a stout Rams run defense, where he rushed for 67 yards on 16 carries. The Seattle Seahawks running back has rushed for 65+ yards in five of his last seven games, and now he gets a favorable matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans.
The Seahawks are 13.5-point favorites, which should lead to a rushing game script against a Titans squad that ranks 26th in DVOA and EPA against the run.
In addition, Seattle has been employing a 55:45 split in carries between Walker and Zach Charbonnet. However, Charbonnet is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush attempt, while Walker has been significantly more efficient with 4.5 ypa.
That could lead to a larger share of the workload for Walker moving forward, especially since head coach Mike Macdonald said that he's "earned more opportunities to get the ball” during Monday's press conference.
Prop pick: Matthew Stafford Over 247.5 passing yards
Matthew Stafford is in his 17th season in the NFL, and this year looks like his best chance of taking home the MVP award. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback is sixth in the league in passing yards (2,557) while boasting the highest passing grade (92.2) per PFF.
Stafford threw for 281 yards against New Orleans in Week 9 before throwing for 280 yards versus San Francisco in Week 10. He was limited to just 130 passing yards against Seattle last week, but the veteran gunslinger should bounce back against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has been a passing funnel.
While the Bucs are second in the league in defensive rush success rate, they rank 22nd in defensive dropback success rate. They are also 27th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (241.6), with that number ballooning to 261.8 on the road.
Prop pick: Travis Kelce Over 51.5 receiving yards
It's time to pump the brakes on the narrative that Travis Kelce is washed up. The 10-time Pro Bowler might not be the player he was in his prime, but the Kansas City Chiefs tight end remains one of the best tight ends in the game.
Last week, Kelce reeled in nine of 13 targets for 91 yards against Denver's elite defense. That was his sixth-straight game with at least 54 receiving yards, and he's averaging 74.8 yards per game during that span.
KC has struggled to establish the run, which has led to the Chiefs passing at the fourth-highest rate in the league (65.6%) over their last three games. Facing the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday should result in another high-volume passing game, giving Kelce plenty of opportunities to shine.
The Colts struggle to defend tight ends, allowing the second-most yards per game (72.6) to the position.
Prop pick: Chase Brown Over 5.5 receptions
After getting off to a brutal start this season, Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown has racked up more than 100 total yards in four straight games.
While Brown might have a tough time finding room on the ground against the New England Patriots' stingy run defense, he should be busy as a receiver out of the backfield. The Pats surrender a league-high 5.7 receptions per game to opposing running backs.
Brown is coming off a six-catch performance against Pittsburgh, and in his previous game, he reeled in eight of 14 targets for 75 yards versus Chicago. With All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase suspended, there will be plenty of extra targets to go around.
NFL Week 12 prop betting card
- Hall u66.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Walker o61.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Stafford o247.5 passing yards (-114)
- Kelce o51.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Brown o5.5 receptions (+130)
My NFL weekly props column is 28-22 this season for +2.84 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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