Don't look now, but the Los Angeles Rams are the Super Bowl favorites and host the 6-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football this week.
This will be a quarterback duel between Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield, and my NFL picks are backing both of them to have big games on primetime.
Here are my favorite NFL player props for the Buccaneers vs. Rams on November 23.
Buccaneers vs Rams SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Matthew Stafford |
256.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Baker Mayfield |
242.5 passing yards | -114 |
| Kyren Williams |
9.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Matthew Stafford Over 256.5 passing yards (-114)
The O/U on Matthew Stafford's passing yards has been steamed from 247.5 to 258.5. Even at that higher number, I'm betting the Over against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that's been a passing funnel.
While the Bucs are second in the league in defensive rush success rate, they rank 22nd in defensive dropback success rate. They also sit 27th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (241.6), with that number ballooning to 261.8 on the road.
Stafford is sixth in the league in passing yards (2,557) while boasting the highest passing grade (92.2) per PFF. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback is the MVP favorite, and he's poised for a big night through the air.
Baker Mayfield Over 242.5 passing yards (-114)
Tampa Bay pivot Baker Mayfield led the league with 4,500 passing yards last season. Although he's been limited by a banged-up group of receivers this season, Mayfield has still thrown for more than 250 yards in four of his last seven games.
Wide receiver Chris Godwin is expected to return to Tampa Bay's lineup Sunday after a two-month absence. Even if he's on a snap count, he should open things up for Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Emeka Egbuka and the other receivers.
The Rams are 7-point home favorites, which should lead to a negative game script and high passing volume from the Bucs. That's been a theme for the 8-2 Rams, who have allowed the fifth-most pass attempts per game (36.4).
This is a five-star play according to EV Analytics, which is projecting 263.2 passing yards for Mayfield.
Kyren Williams Over 9.5 receiving yards (-114)
Kyren Williams could have a tough time finding running room against a stout Bucs run defense, but Sean McVay will still look to get the ball into the hands of his talented back.
Williams has logged 10+ receiving yards in seven of his last nine games. That includes a Week 5 clash against the 49ers, where he reeled in eight catches for 66 yards.
The Bucs are also vulnerable against pass-catching backs, allowing a league-high 59.6 receiving yards per game to the position.
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Buccaneers vs Rams SNF prop betting card
- Stafford o256.5 passing yards (-114)
- Mayfield o242.5 passing yards (-114)
- Williams o9.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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