Best NFL Picks Today

Give me Pat Freiermuth at 21% to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Cleveland Browns, as I price him closer to 27% to find the end zone. The strength of this Browns defense is Denzel Ward on the outside, taking away throws to the boundary. Aaron Rodgers is obviously a very cerebral quarterback, so why would he force the ball into tight windows against one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when he can focus his progressions over the middle of the field and pick apart these Browns linebackers as they try to cover Freiermuth? I don't think the Browns have a hybrid defender who can match the 6-foot-5 Freiermuth on a jump ball while also having the athleticism to match his speed on routes near the goal line.

Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases. Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London. Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.

I have this at 3.08x, with Michael Wilson's TD at a fair price of 2.7x after a 17-target Week 3. His target share has been on the rise, from 19% in Week 1 to 27% in Week 2 and then 34% last week. He is getting fed, and that volume comes in a game against a New York defense that is still thin in the secondary and ranks near the bottom of the league in EPA/dropback. It's tough to find a WR1 at longer than 2.8x, especially one in a game where Arizona can score and might be able to win the time-of-possession battle against a Giants offense that is likely being run by Jameis Winston. It's a play on the price and volume.

I'm buying Khalil Shakir at 3.55x with a fair price of 3.2x. Trevor Lawrence might not have had a huge game last week against the Patriots, but he was perfect in the red zone, going 5-for-5 with three passing TDs, all coming to his wide receivers. Josh Allen has been quite greedy in the red zone with eight carries for five TDs and a 61% run rate inside the 20. With Allen's health already showing some concern after he picked up a knee injury late in Week 3, and turnovers being an issue, some more passing in tight could go a long way in the Bills' play calling. This season, Shakir has the most red-zone targets of all the Buffalo pass catchers and played the most snaps among the wide receivers in Week 3 at 71%. He hasn't looked great this year, but the snaps, red-zone usage, and hopeful change in RZ philosophy have me reaching here at this long price when DJ Moore is too short at 2.5x.

The Jets defense struggled against a more dynamic offense from Detroit in Week 3, giving up 381 yards and 24 first downs while ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his play calling is a problem, even with Case Keenum under center. Chicago spread the ball around to eight different receivers while also mixing in unique run calls. With confidence in the QB3 rising, expect Johnson to take the training wheels off in Week 4.

I have hit the Jake Ferguson TD in back-to-back weeks. One would think it's time to bail, but I'm getting 4.3x this week indoors vs. the Texans, after I was getting 3.7x last week and 3.4x in Week 2. How is this TD price going the other way? I understand it's the Texans, and the projected team total for the Cowboys is a little lower this week, but you can't run against the Texans, and their passing defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in EPA/dropback. Last week, I said the Ferguson TD fair price was around 3.4x, and I stand by that. Ferguson has more red-zone targets than CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

I got this at 4.3x, and if both Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson sit, this should have a fair price of 3.5x. The Rams use heavy tight-end sets at one of the highest rates in football, and even if Puka Nacua suits up, Tyler Higbee will have a ton of snaps. He took advantage of those snaps last week, seeing nine targets and leading the team with eight receptions and a score. He also has the same number of red-zone targets as Davante Adams. The Rams' PROE is climbing after a run-heavy game in Australia, and a negative game script could have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball 40-plus times again this week. I'm getting on this early, as Ferguson is likely out and Parkinson isn't practicing early in the week. Davis Allen to score at 9x is also worth a sniff.

This is the longest Lamar Jackson has been for a TD since Week 1. He was 2.9x last week and 2.85x in Week 2, and I think anything at 3x or better is a buy this week vs. the Titans. The Baltimore team total sits at 27.5, and this might seem like a spot where Derrick Henry gets all the goal-line work, but the Ravens could be down to their No. 4 option at center, which is first-round guard Olaivavega Ioane. Tackle Ronnie Stanley and starting guard John Simpson also opened their practice windows in limited fashion. There could be some issues for a team that is running the ball 33% in the red zone. The Titans actually rank 11th in red-zone defense, and there could be a few more scrambles or designed runs inside the 20 on Sunday than expected.

I got this at 3.66x and would play to 3.4x. The Bengals are a tight-end funnel. No team gives up more yards to opposing tight ends than Cincinnati at 92 yards per game, which is a full 10-plus yards more than the next team. Having both starting safeties limited to start the week only makes this spot for Brenton Strange even better. The No. 1 tight end had five targets last week, is playing 75% of the snaps (second among pass catchers), and is running 74% of the routes. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Jacksonville offense, but Strange has a red-zone role, and the price makes him my favorite TD pick in this game, which could see both sides score 25-plus points.

Miami just lost its biggest weapon in Achane, leaving Malik Willis to face this insane Vikings defense with little help. Minnesota's blitz-hefty schemes are humming and face a Dolphins offensive line that gave up nine sacks in the opening two games. Willis ranks among the worst QBs when blitzed at PFF. Justin Jefferson's injury status doesn't worry me as much in Week 4. If he does play, this spread jumps to key number of -10 and beyond.

The Niners have fattened up on cupcake opponents the past two weeks, facing Arizona and Miami, and honestly have been doing so since their winning streak to end 2025. The Broncos are a step up in competition, especially if the offensive progress made in the second half of Week 3 sticks. Denver was stuck in mud for its first 150 minutes of football but broke out for 30 points in the final two frames in the comeback win over the Rams Sunday. The vile electrical substation had a huge Week 3, claiming the souls of some of San Francisco’s top talents on both sides of the ball. Denver wins the battle in the trenches in Week 4.

Behind Gibbs is third-year RB Sione Vaki, who saw his snap share spike to 31% in Week 2. Head coach Dan Campbell praised Vaki after the win against New York and we have seen him get a red-zone carry already this season. Detroit is trying to be smart about Gibbs’ wear and tear, which gives Vaki garbage time gains on SNF. The Panthers have been pushed around on the ground, giving up the most rushing yards to RBs through three games. Carolina also collapses in the red zone, allowing foes to score on a league-high 85.7% trips inside the 20-yard line, with six rushing TDs against.

New Orleans enters Week 4 among the worst run stop units in the land. The Falcons’ running back room of Robinson & Robinson (Bijan and Brian) will chew up gains on the ground and dominate possession, limiting NOLA’s time with the football. When Saints do get a crack at it, they’ll be looking to press the pass against what is shaping up as one of the better secondaries in the NFL. Atlanta owns the third lowest success rate per dropback allowed and ranks Top 10 in several key pass defense analytics. Tyler Shough is playing off his ass right now, sitting second in total passing yards (but not a darling in the advanced stats), which means regression is about to go marching in for the Saints QB.