Tennessee 4th AFC South6-11
Miami 2nd AFC East11-6
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Tennessee @ Miami props

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Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Made Props • Tennessee

Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE • Tennessee
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Under
-130

At the present time, the least pass-centric offense in the NFL (56.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Tennessee Titans. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Titans are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 63.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week. The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average). When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Titans ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a remarkable regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 71.9% rate.

Chigoziem Okonkwo

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

At the present time, the least pass-centric offense in the NFL (56.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Tennessee Titans. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Titans are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 63.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week. The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average). When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Titans ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a remarkable regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 71.9% rate.

Devon Achane Receptions Made Props • Miami

Devon Achane
RB • Miami
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.7
Best Odds
Over
+108

The predictive model expects Devon Achane to earn 3.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs. Devon Achane rates in the 77th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a superb 12.3 mark this year. The Titans safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Devon Achane

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.7
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.7

The predictive model expects Devon Achane to earn 3.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs. Devon Achane rates in the 77th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a superb 12.3 mark this year. The Titans safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Made Props • Tennessee

DeAndre Hopkins
WR • Tennessee
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
+108

The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this week's game. Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs. DeAndre Hopkins places in the 95th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a whopping 72.3 figure this year. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.2%) versus wideouts this year (71.2%).

DeAndre Hopkins

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.7
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.7

The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this week's game. Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs. DeAndre Hopkins places in the 95th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a whopping 72.3 figure this year. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.2%) versus wideouts this year (71.2%).

Tyreek Hill Receptions Made Props • Miami

Tyreek Hill
WR • Miami
Prop
7.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
+115

In this week's contest, Tyreek Hill is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.6 targets. Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 32.5% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs. Tyreek Hill grades out as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.8 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 99th percentile. Tyreek Hill's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 70.8% to 75.6%. This year, the shaky Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a colossal 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

Tyreek Hill

Prop: 7.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.5
Prop:
7.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.5

In this week's contest, Tyreek Hill is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.6 targets. Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 32.5% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs. Tyreek Hill grades out as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.8 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 99th percentile. Tyreek Hill's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 70.8% to 75.6%. This year, the shaky Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered a colossal 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the worst rate in the league.

Durham Smythe Receptions Made Props • Miami

Durham Smythe
TE • Miami
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.6
Best Odds
Over
+110

Durham Smythe's 72.8% Route Participation Rate this year marks a noteworthy growth in his passing attack utilization over last year's 27.1% mark. Durham Smythe's 2.3 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a noteable gain in his receiving prowess over last season's 1.2 mark. With an impressive 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (86th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe stands as one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.2%) vs. tight ends this year (79.2%). The Titans safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Durham Smythe

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.6
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.6

Durham Smythe's 72.8% Route Participation Rate this year marks a noteworthy growth in his passing attack utilization over last year's 27.1% mark. Durham Smythe's 2.3 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a noteable gain in his receiving prowess over last season's 1.2 mark. With an impressive 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (86th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe stands as one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.2%) vs. tight ends this year (79.2%). The Titans safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Derrick Henry Receptions Made Props • Tennessee

Derrick Henry
RB • Tennessee
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.6
Best Odds
Over
-112

The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this week's game. Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 84.3% to 91.7%.

Derrick Henry

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.6
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.6

The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this week's game. Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 84.3% to 91.7%.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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