Georgia Bulldogs

Picks

Taylor 44+ receiving yards correlates with Stockton’s passing prop. Georgia’s top-graded starting receiver draws Florida’s weakest starting defensive back and needs roughly three catches at his season average to clear the number.

Stockton's passing prop is playable up to 250+ yards. He leads the SEC in several efficiency metrics, has cleared 249 yards in three of five conference games, and draws a vulnerable Florida pass defense.

My power ratings only made this spread 10. Florida has been very high variance this season, but I expect the good version out of their bye. Florida's OC was on the staff at Georgia for multiple years and when he was at Georgia Tech, they gave Georgia fits multiple times, covering in all three games in the underdog role. 

I like Georgia to hit its team total Over at 34.5 or better. Florida is allwoing 34.2 points per game in SEC play and has given up 38+ points in two of its last three games. The Bulldogs rank No. 1 nationally in points per opportunity (5.21).

Between Florida OC Buster Faulkner's success against Kirby Smart and the Gators' dreadful defense, I'd take the Over at 55.5 or better. The Bulldogs rank No. 1 nationally in points per opportunity (5.21) and No. 2 in offensive success rate (51.9%). Florida's defense is allowing 34.2 points per game in SEC play.

I would take Georgia to cover up to -12.5 in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Florida's defense has allowed 28+ points in four of five SEC games. Georgia's offense is top 20 in offensive success rate (49.7%), and its run defense is built to stop the Gators' run-first approach; the Dawgs allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the SEC (90.3).