North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Picks & Props
UNC vs PITT Picks
NCAAF PicksPlayable at anything Under 70.5. Jordan Shipp stands to benefit from a pass-funnel matchup against Pittsburgh, which limits runs (2.0 yards per rush allowed) but has a burnable secondary (67th in EPA per pass and 117th in passing explosiveness allowed).
North Carolina's defense wears down as the game goes on, and Pitt will take advantage. The Panthers hold possession 31:38 per game and convert 46% of their third downs. Antonio Chadha is a perfect 5-for-5 on field goals and 23-for-23 on extra points, so even stalled drives turn into points.
The Tar Heels can add their own points. Pitt's pass defense just allowed 434 yards at Virginia Tech, and Billy Edwards Jr. threw three touchdown passes against Notre Dame. Jaden Jefferson returned a kickoff 98 yards against the Irish, and Pitt allows 25.8 yards per kick return.
Pitt has scored on 18 of 22 red-zone trips, including 14 touchdowns. Play this up to 47.5.
The Panthers are 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents 157-34, and haven't allowed a third-quarter point. North Carolina has been outscored 26-9 in the fourth quarter and has dropped its last four conference games. I'll lay it up to -4.
All three legs follow the same script. Pittsburgh leans on the run, North Carolina's front wears down in the second half, and the Panthers do enough to win. The moneyline means Pitt doesn't need to cover, so a late Tar Heels touchdown doesn't hurt. UNC keeps pace early with big plays through the air and on returns, pushing the scoreboard past 46.5.
UNC vs PITT Consensus Picks
UNC vs PITT Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
PITT
H. Geriner
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
237.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+37.6
DIFFERENCE
26.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UNC
B. Edwards Jr.
(QB)
u219.5 Passing Yards
210.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.4
DIFFERENCE
19.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
D. June
(RB)
o22.5 Rushing Yards
34.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.5
DIFFERENCE
26.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
B. Hall
(RB)
o41.5 Rushing Yards
52.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.7
DIFFERENCE
25.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
PITT
D. Ferguson Jr.
(RB)
u34.5 Rushing Yards
33.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
22.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
B. Yates
(WR)
o26.5 Receiving Yards
36.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
25.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Thurman
(TE)
o44.5 Receiving Yards
52.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
24.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Shipp
(WR)
o63.5 Receiving Yards
73.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
24.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
C. Lee
(WR)
o35.5 Receiving Yards
40.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
21.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
T. Kekahuna
(WR)
o20.5 Receiving Yards
24.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
21.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
B. Hall
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
9.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
18.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
B. Hicks
(WR)
u49.5 Receiving Yards
47.21 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.3
DIFFERENCE
10.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
PITT
J. Turner
(RB)
u15.5 Carries
14.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
15.66%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 5-0 in Tar Heels last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 8-0 in Tar Heels last 8 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Under is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.