LSU vs Kentucky Picks & Props
LSU vs UK Picks
NCAAF PicksFirst-half Over 27.5 is playable up to 55%. I'm expecting LSU to build a big early lead before the game slows dramatically after halftime, allowing this leg to cash while still correlating with my full-game Under.
Under 51.5 is playable down to 49.5. Wind and rain could hurt Kentucky’s passing game, while LSU should be able to control the matchup on the ground and bleed clock behind a dominant defense.
LSU -9.5 is playable up to -10.5. The Tigers rank fourth nationally in yards per rush allowed and second in sacks, which should force Kentucky into obvious passing downs where its protection issues become a major problem.
I like LSU's offense in this one, but I love their defense. It's strange to say, but maybe they're a little bit underrated right now. Specificically on defense, they're number two in the country in yards per play allowed and total defense. They're truly one of the best defenses in the country and will be too much for Kentucky.
LSU can score early enough to cash the first-half Over, then lean on its run game and defense after building a lead. That game script keeps the Tigers cover and full-game Under working together.
LSU vs UK Consensus Picks
LSU vs UK Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
S. Leavitt
(QB)
u243.5 Passing Yards
233.03 UNDER
PROJECTION
-10.5
DIFFERENCE
21.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UK
K. Minchey
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
209.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
15.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
J. Harris
(WR)
o43.5 Receiving Yards
57.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.2
DIFFERENCE
26.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UK
H. Boyer
(TE)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
13.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
25.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UK
W. Rodriguez
(TE)
o34.5 Receiving Yards
45.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.1
DIFFERENCE
25.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
12.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
25.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
E. Wilson III
(WR)
o34.5 Receiving Yards
44.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.9
DIFFERENCE
25.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UK
K. Darby
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
54.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
E. Wilson III
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.51 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
8.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
S. Leavitt
(QB)
u19.5 Completions
18.91 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
10.88%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 conference games.