Florida State vs Louisville Picks & Props
FSU vs LOU Picks
NCAAF Picks
o27.5 Team Total (-120)
I'd play the Over on Florida State's team total at 27.5 or better. The Seminoles are averaging 33.2 PPG and have gone Over 27.5 in four of five games. They have one of the best run games in the country (12th in EPA per rush), and Louisville has allowed Over 27.5 points in all four of its FBS games.
o59.5 (-107)
With how poorly these defenses have looked at times this season, this should be a shootout, and I'd play the Over at 60.5 or better. Louisville is top 25 nationally in offensive success rate (49.7%), but its defense is 73rd in success rate (44.3%). Florida State's offense is eighth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, but its defense is 93rd. Perfect shootout matchup.
Florida State has quietly been a quality team this season, and I like the Seminoles to cover up to +3.5. Louisville's defense is a huge problem, and FSU is capable of taking advantage of it with its run game. Florida State is 17th nationally in rush success rate (49.7%), and Louisville's defense is 88th in net EPA per play.
Louisville is 4-1 to the Over this season but has failed to cover in two straight games because of its poor defense. The Cardinals are allowing 33.2 PPG to FBS opponents, and with FSU's run game (12th in EPA per rush), it should be able to keep this close in a shootout. I'm expecting this game to be tight late, leading to plenty of points in the fourth quarter.
FSU vs LOU Consensus Picks
FSU vs LOU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
FSU
A. Daniels
(QB)
o209.5 Passing Yards
236.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+26.6
DIFFERENCE
26.49%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o237.5 Passing Yards
248.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.9
DIFFERENCE
19.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
50.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.8
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
I. Brown
(RB)
u67.5 Rushing Yards
58.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-9.5
DIFFERENCE
24.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FSU
O. Kromah
(RB)
o79.5 Rushing Yards
85.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
19.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
T. Richardson
(WR)
o72.5 Receiving Yards
79.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.4
DIFFERENCE
25.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
J. Skinner
(TE)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
39.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.6
DIFFERENCE
25.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
L. McCoy
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
58.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.3
DIFFERENCE
24.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
J. Boggs
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
48.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.7
DIFFERENCE
24.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
M. Danzy
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
43.49 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
19.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
T. Hurry
(WR)
o42.5 Receiving Yards
47.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
18.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Robinson
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
55.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
-5.26%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 6-0 in Seminoles last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Louisville.
Over is 6-0 in Seminoles last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.