North Carolina vs Clemson Picks & Props
UNC vs CLEM Picks
NCAAF PicksNorth Carolina's most reliable offensive weapon has been tight end Jelani Thurman, who leads the team in targets (12), receptions (8), yards (165), and touchdowns (1). The Ohio State transfer has an FBS-best 90.5 PFF grade and a superb 3.44 yards per route run.
Bill Belichick’s strategy against a freshman quarterback making his first career start will be simple: force Tait Reynolds to win the game through the air. On offense, Belichick will focus on controlling the clock and securing points whenever possible—favoring long field goal attempts over risky fourth-and-short conversions.
The conservative approach and an offense that already has been playing things close to the vest should keep the score low and the Tar Heels out of the end zone.
Bill Belichick has UNC running the late-career Patriot offense--control the ball, avoid mistakes and kick field goals. Both teams rank in the 120s or lower in explosiveness on offense.
I wouldn't go any higher, but I'd stick with Clemson at this probability. Any higher, and I'd surrender the 3.5 points and go spread instead. The Tigers should see a spark in their offense with a new quarterback as well as an injury to one of UNC's top pass rushers.
The game matches big-name coaches on both sides, and both men really need a win. Dabo Swinney has been questioned for his unwillingness to embrace the transfer portal, and a second-straight 1-2 start to a season could have his seat getting hot underneath him.
Belichick’s tenure at UNC may be stabilizing after a brutal first year, but the team is still embroiled in scandal, and he needs success on the field to justify the bad headlines swirling around the program.
With two great coaches both in need of a win, look for a conservative, run-first, clock control game. It won’t be fun to watch and could end 15-12. We’ll call it 20-15, Clemson.
UNC vs CLEM Consensus Picks
UNC vs CLEM Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
CLEM
T. Reynolds
(QB)
o189.5 Passing Yards
216.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+26.6
DIFFERENCE
26.92%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
UNC
B. Edwards Jr.
(QB)
u208.5 Passing Yards
202.43 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.1
DIFFERENCE
14.08%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
D. June
(RB)
o25.5 Rushing Yards
32.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.8
DIFFERENCE
24.92%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
B. Hall
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
49.52 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
23.4%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
J. McGill
(RB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
21.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
21.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
CLEM
T. Moore
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
90.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+30.8
DIFFERENCE
26.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Thurman
(TE)
o40.5 Receiving Yards
47.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.6
DIFFERENCE
22.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
T. Kekahuna
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
23.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.9
DIFFERENCE
21.75%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
M. Humphrey
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
23.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
21.24%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Shipp
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
61.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
5.01%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
CLEM
B. Wesco Jr.
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
13.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UNC
J. Thurman
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
4.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
9.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UNC
J. Shipp
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-5.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
CLEM
T. Reynolds
(QB)
o11.5 Carries
12.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
3.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
CLEM
G. Davidson
(RB)
o13.5 Carries
13.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-3.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
CLEM
T. Reynolds
(QB)
o16.5 Completions
20.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
23.5%
EV
|
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|
COMPLETIONS
UNC
B. Edwards Jr.
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
18.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
11.28%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Tar Heels last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Tar Heels last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 home games.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a ATS loss.