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Free College Football Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game Sept. 17, 2026
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.39 |
+10.5 -110 |
o51.0 -112 |
+350 |
|
|
31.76 |
-10.5 -105 |
u52.5 -115 |
-400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
39.12 |
-20.5 -110 |
o55.5 -110 |
-1408 |
|
|
19.05 |
+20.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
+1050 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
23.64 |
+8.5 -110 |
o52.5 +100 |
+260 |
|
|
31.01 |
-8.5 -105 |
u52.5 -110 |
-315 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.28 |
+4.5 -110 |
o56.5 -115 |
+165 |
|
|
31.28 |
-4.5 -105 |
u57.5 -110 |
-190 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.32 |
+3.0 -115 |
o62.5 +100 |
+135 |
|
|
33.29 |
-3.0 -105 |
u62.5 -105 |
-142 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.77 |
+5.5 -108 |
o49.5 -128 |
-200 |
|
|
24.66 |
-5.5 -112 |
u50.5 -102 |
+180 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
2.01 |
+52.5 -108 |
o58.5 -115 |
-- |
|
|
56.10 |
-52.5 -102 |
u60.5 -125 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.41 |
+3.5 -115 |
o43.0 -110 |
+140 |
|
|
22.24 |
-3.5 +105 |
u43.5 -108 |
-160 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.09 |
+41.5 -110 |
o49.5 +100 |
+17500 |
|
|
45.39 |
-41.5 -105 |
u50.5 -110 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
41.08 |
-24.5 -110 |
o54.0 -112 |
-2500 |
|
|
16.07 |
+24.5 -105 |
u54.5 -110 |
+1550 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
9.17 |
+24.5 -118 |
o43.5 -105 |
+1600 |
|
|
33.99 |
-24.5 +100 |
u44.5 -115 |
-2200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.70 |
+20.5 -104 |
o49.5 -108 |
+1000 |
|
|
36.22 |
-20.5 -110 |
u50.5 -113 |
-1400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.74 |
+24.5 -120 |
o48.5 -115 |
+1600 |
|
|
36.68 |
-24.5 +100 |
u49.5 -110 |
-2500 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
10.85 |
+24.5 -125 |
o44.5 -115 |
+1800 |
|
|
33.34 |
-24.5 -111 |
u45.5 -110 |
-2000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.66 |
+3.5 -112 |
o50.5 -110 |
+138 |
|
|
28.33 |
-3.5 +100 |
u50.5 -105 |
-150 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.36 |
-1.5 -105 |
o38.5 -108 |
-112 |
|
|
18.06 |
+1.5 -105 |
u38.5 -108 |
+105 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.43 |
+6.5 -115 |
o50.5 -110 |
+190 |
|
|
29.09 |
-6.5 -103 |
u50.5 -108 |
-210 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.89 |
+28.5 -120 |
o56.5 -109 |
+2500 |
|
|
43.78 |
-28.5 +100 |
u57.5 -113 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
40.55 |
-21.5 -112 |
o59.5 +100 |
-2000 |
|
|
19.22 |
+21.5 -108 |
u59.5 -110 |
+1300 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.64 |
+35.5 -112 |
o48.5 -105 |
+10000 |
|
|
40.72 |
-35.5 +100 |
u49.5 -112 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
15.24 |
+19.5 -105 |
o48.5 -110 |
+1000 |
|
|
34.80 |
-19.5 -105 |
u50.5 -135 |
-1205 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.15 |
+2.5 -115 |
o58.5 -110 |
+105 |
|
|
31.13 |
-2.5 -105 |
u59.5 -115 |
-115 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.42 |
+16.5 -114 |
o49.5 -108 |
+575 |
|
|
34.37 |
-16.5 -105 |
u50.5 -115 |
-750 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.01 |
+17.5 -115 |
o49.5 -112 |
+680 |
|
|
35.78 |
-17.5 +100 |
u50.5 -110 |
-847 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.29 |
+20.5 -110 |
o48.5 -115 |
+900 |
|
|
35.56 |
-20.5 -105 |
u50.5 -112 |
-1099 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.95 |
+15.5 -110 |
o49.5 -108 |
+570 |
|
|
31.94 |
-15.5 -110 |
u50.5 -115 |
-600 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.48 |
+10.5 -110 |
o50.5 -111 |
+325 |
|
|
31.01 |
-10.5 +100 |
u51.5 -118 |
-390 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
7.65 |
+44.5 -105 |
o59.5 -110 |
+17500 |
|
|
55.27 |
-44.5 -110 |
u61.0 -109 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.74 |
+4.5 -115 |
o58.5 -109 |
+155 |
|
|
31.97 |
-4.5 -105 |
u58.5 -108 |
-175 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.10 |
+18.5 -115 |
o51.5 -110 |
+800 |
|
|
36.41 |
-18.5 -105 |
u52.5 -126 |
-1099 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.35 |
+6.5 +102 |
o62.5 -105 |
+230 |
|
|
33.90 |
-6.5 -110 |
u62.5 -106 |
-240 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.80 |
+3.5 -125 |
o48.5 -110 |
+125 |
|
|
26.53 |
-3.5 +105 |
u49.5 -115 |
-133 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.15 |
-3.5 -113 |
o52.5 -105 |
-178 |
|
|
25.36 |
+3.5 -105 |
u53.5 -113 |
+165 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.71 |
-1.5 -115 |
o51.5 -125 |
-120 |
|
|
25.53 |
+1.5 -105 |
u53.5 -110 |
+115 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.58 |
-8.5 -112 |
o43.5 -112 |
-340 |
|
|
16.70 |
+8.5 -110 |
u44.0 -115 |
+325 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.53 |
+7.5 -120 |
o48.5 -112 |
+225 |
|
|
29.24 |
-7.5 -102 |
u49.5 -112 |
-244 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.94 |
-3.5 -109 |
o49.5 -110 |
-176 |
|
|
23.56 |
+3.5 -105 |
u50.5 -108 |
+160 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.85 |
+3.5 -112 |
o52.5 -110 |
+145 |
|
|
27.16 |
-3.5 +100 |
u53.5 -115 |
-155 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
11.64 |
+27.5 -110 |
o49.5 -110 |
+2000 |
|
|
38.98 |
-27.5 +100 |
u50.5 -110 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.08 |
-3.5 +105 |
o54.5 -110 |
-155 |
|
|
26.40 |
+3.5 -115 |
u54.5 -108 |
+140 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.11 |
+18.5 -115 |
o49.5 -115 |
+750 |
|
|
34.65 |
-18.5 -105 |
u50.5 -110 |
-950 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.57 |
-1.5 -138 |
o57.0 -114 |
-130 |
|
|
28.32 |
+1.5 +103 |
u57.5 -110 |
+125 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
11.46 |
+29.5 -108 |
o52.0 -110 |
+2500 |
|
|
41.56 |
-29.5 -105 |
u53.5 -110 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.52 |
+3.5 -110 |
o47.5 -115 |
+150 |
|
|
26.14 |
-3.5 -105 |
u48.5 -115 |
-170 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.91 |
+11.5 -129 |
o52.5 -121 |
+325 |
|
|
32.45 |
-11.5 -103 |
u54.0 -111 |
-360 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.81 |
-1.5 -135 |
o53.5 -110 |
-145 |
|
|
26.56 |
+1.5 +112 |
u54.5 -115 |
+125 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.44 |
+22.5 -110 |
o45.5 -115 |
+1300 |
|
|
33.27 |
-22.5 -110 |
u46.5 -108 |
-1800 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
35.29 |
-17.5 -107 |
o52.5 -105 |
-952 |
|
|
19.11 |
+17.5 -105 |
u53.5 -110 |
+750 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.89 |
+35.5 -110 |
o59.5 -102 |
+5000 |
|
|
48.06 |
-35.5 +100 |
u60.0 -111 |
-33333 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
15.81 |
+30.5 -110 |
o58.0 -109 |
+3000 |
|
|
44.70 |
-30.5 -105 |
u58.5 -112 |
-5000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.21 |
+8.5 -110 |
o55.5 -115 |
+295 |
|
|
33.10 |
-8.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
-310 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.12 |
+20.5 -115 |
o56.0 -110 |
+850 |
|
|
37.65 |
-20.5 -105 |
u57.5 -115 |
-1100 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.83 |
+2.5 -113 |
o45.5 -110 |
+105 |
|
|
24.73 |
-2.5 -113 |
u47.5 -115 |
-122 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.93 |
+34.5 -115 |
o49.5 -110 |
+5500 |
|
|
41.54 |
-34.5 -105 |
u50.5 -110 |
-20000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
38.81 |
-27.5 -108 |
o50.5 -110 |
-5000 |
|
|
12.97 |
+27.5 -102 |
u51.5 -111 |
+2500 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.26 |
-6.5 -110 |
o49.5 -110 |
-230 |
|
|
21.32 |
+6.5 -105 |
u50.5 -112 |
+210 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.10 |
+14.5 -115 |
o52.5 -108 |
+500 |
|
|
33.94 |
-14.5 +100 |
u53.5 -115 |
-625 |
The first-half Under has cashed in eight of Syracuse's previous 11 games, and Pittsburgh will establish the run early in this game because it gave up seven sacks against the Orange last year.
The Orange have more experience on defense, and their head coach, Fran Brown, has a defensive pedigree. The Under has cashed in seven of the last eight Syracuse-Pittsburgh meetings.
The Demon Deacons' first-half spread is good down to 10.5 because they have covered the first-half spread in 10 of their last 12 games and the Hurricanes can wear them down and pull away in the second half since they are a more physical team.
I lean toward the Under at 54.5 or higher. These teams are 4-0 to the Over this season and Wake Forest just gave up 36 points to Purdue last week. I prefer fading the market and recent results rather than following them. Miami ranks 107th nationally in seconds per play and 28 of the 69 points in Wake Forest's game against Purdue last week were scored in double overtime.
Give me Thomas's Over for his receiving yards prop up to 75.5. Thomas was named first-team All-Big XII last season while leading Houston in receiving yards (966), and he returned to school with his quarterback, Conner Weigman.
Both of these defenses are ranked outside the Top 100 by SP+, while both offenses are ranked Top 75. Texas State QB Brad Jackson was one of just two QBs in the country with 20+ passing touchdowns and 15+ rushing touchdowns last season. UNT QB Tayven Jackson is Top 25 in QBR (82.8) and has a star running back beside him in Jahiem White.
I absolutely love Texas State at home against North Texas this weekend. Despite its 0-2 record, Texas State is far better than its record shows. The Bobcats put up nearly 350 total yards against Texas in Week 1 and outgained UTSA by nearly 100 yards in Week 2. Unfortunately, three turnovers in each game helped lead to both losses. I expect the Bobcats to clean that up against a North Texas team coming off a massive win over UNLV. I also think people will put too much weight on North Texas’ recent success. Trust the kitties!
The Arizona State Sun Devils are the better team and deserves to be favored in London.
ASU outgained Texas A&M 369-255 last week, but four turnovers turned a competitive performance into a 48-20 loss. The Kansas Jayhawks have a less convincing underlying profile, ranking 56th nationally in 2025 adjusted EPA per play at +0.10 and 84th in raw EPA per play at -0.07. The Jayhawks also managed only 248 total yards against Missouri after dominating an inferior opponent in Week 1. Arizona State’s offense has shown more reliable explosiveness. With the Sun Devils favored by only 5.5 points, I’m comfortable laying the number to 55%.
Arizona State is a 5.5-point favorite, so the expected game script already supports sustained offensive aggression from the Sun Devils. Reaching four touchdowns requires 28 points, a reasonable threshold in a matchup with a 50.5-point total. Arizona State has scored 70 points in one of its first two games and should have enough opportunities to reach the end zone repeatedly against a Kansas defense that struggled to contain Missouri. The Sun Devils’ offensive balance also gives them multiple paths to four touchdowns, whether through explosive passes, red-zone runs or short-field possessions. Play to 50%.
Bill Belichick’s strategy against a freshman quarterback making his first career start will be simple: force Tait Reynolds to win the game through the air. On offense, Belichick will focus on controlling the clock and securing points whenever possible—favoring long field goal attempts over risky fourth-and-short conversions.
The conservative approach and an offense that already has been playing things close to the vest should keep the score low and the Tar Heels out of the end zone.
Bill Belichick has UNC running the late-career Patriot offense--control the ball, avoid mistakes and kick field goals. Both teams rank in the 120s or lower in explosiveness on offense.
I expect this game to go Under, mostly because I don't expect the Arkansas offense to score a touchdown. I've outlined the backing for a prop like this throughout the article: the trenches, Arkansas's defensive numbers, and the general malaise around the Razorbacks program. However, there's more.
The Georgia offense is humming. It just dropped 70 points against Western Kentucky, and QB Gunnar Stockton has eight touchdown passes with zero interceptions over two games. Meanwhile, Utah just scored 43 against the Razorbacks. That's a team that ranks 22nd in SP+. What's a team that ranks first going to do?
This has "Georgia goes up two scores, and Kirby Smart runs his backfield into the ground, physically dominating Arkansas in the process" written all over it. In the process, the clock should run and run...and run. I like the Under to 52.5 because of that.
I already mentioned the issues Arkansas is likely to face in the trenches, but the other side of the ball is what really drives this home. I don't expect the Razorbacks to move the ball much at all. The only offensive metric of any substance that it ranks above triple digits in is third/fourth-down success. A big product of that? The volume and finding itself there often because it's been so ineffective on other downs.
NC State entered the season with plenty of hype, including from yours truly, but got absolutely smoked by Virginia 34-8 in Week 0. The Wolf Pack bounced back in a big way, crushing Richmond 73-0 in Week 2. Now, they head to Nashville to take on a Vanderbilt team that has yet to impress. The Commodores beat Austin Peay 28-9 before narrowly beating Delaware 35-26 as 20.5-point favorites. Vanderbilt was nearly outgained by Delaware, needing six sacks and two interceptions to escape with the win. I’m backing NC State to bounce back from its loss to Virginia and take down the Commodores on the road.
Good down to +21.5. USC's mediocre defense allowed both San Jose State (26 points, 6.0 yards per play) and Louisiana (30 points, 6.9 YPP) to find offensive success, so a back door cover will be live for KJ Duff and this Rutgers offense.
Heisman candidate Jayden Maiava (10.8 yards per attempt) will have success throwing the ball around against a Rutgers defense that doesn't put pressure on the quarterback, ranking 124th in PFF's pass-rushing grade. Rutgers has the ability to hit chunk plays (26th in explosiveness) with reliable offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca calling the shots.
A great combo leg here: The Crimson Tide comes out hot early and owns the entire first half. They likely won't let up in this matchup, but expect them to come out looking to smack the Seminoles in the mouth after last year's embarrassment.
Florida State’s defense has been far from impressive through the first two weeks, and that could spell trouble against Alabama. The Seminoles allowed over 319 total yards to New Mexico State before nearly surrendering 600 total yards to SMU. Alabama has the offensive firepower to take advantage, and I expect the Crimson Tide to carry the bulk of the scoring in this matchup. However, if Alabama reaches 40 points, Florida State should have opportunities to do some damage in garbage time. I’m expecting a 40-10 final score, which would put the Seminoles in position to contribute enough late.
I'm interested in the first-quarter Under if the total stays above 10.5 because the Mustangs have gone Under in the first quarter in 10 of their last 12 games. Louisville and Ole Miss combined for just three first-quarter points.
I lean toward the Over as long as it stays below 60.5 because both head coaches were college quarterbacks and both teams grade out in the 79th percentile nationally in offensive explosive play rate, per GameOnPaper.com.
South Carolina has cruised through its first two games, taking care of Kent State and Towson without much resistance. This matchup represents a significant step up in competition. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has already faced a tougher test, traveling to Minneapolis and beating Minnesota. The Bulldogs dominated the Golden Gophers statistically, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards while converting 60% of their third downs and averaging 7.0 yards per play. Quarterback Kamario Taylor completed 72% of his passes for over 220 yards and three touchdowns. South Carolina has home-field advantage, but Mississippi State has already shown it can handle the road.
Playable to 55%.
The biggest weakness for both Florida and Auburn is their offensive line.
Florida lost three starters from 2025, making Saturday's game a tough test for a group that doesn't have a lot of on-field experience together. Auburn lost their entire offensive line from 2025, putting them in a similarly difficult spot against a formidable Florida pass rush. Auburn aggressively hit the portal to rebuild the trenches this past offseason, but there are likely to be growing pains for their offensive line against good defenses.
Young quarterbacks tend to struggle under pressure. If neither offensive line can offer consistently clean pockets this weekend, points could be at a premium for both Florida and Auburn.
Playable to 51%.
On the surface, Auburn may appear to be a weaker team because they struggled with Baylor, but the more shrewd takeaway from that game should be that Baylor might be better than many pundits expected. In Week 2, Baylor outgained Prairie View by 442 total yards, allowing only 7 first downs in a 44-3 victory. The final score could have been uglier after Baylor led 34-3 at the half, but they chose to take the air out of the ball late in the game.
Florida and Auburn both have question marks heading into Week 3. The home team getting points is the better value for bettors, especially considering they have already been tested by a real opponent in 2026.
It's important to pay attention to maket moves from the prior week. South Alabama took money last week vs Tulane. They went on to cover and should have won outright, so that was a bit of a misleading final. On top of that, Ohio had money go against them last week and went on to win a game they shouldn't have in four OTs after being outgained by over 200 yards. I think this line could close closer to six.
LSU's front seven is one of the scariest in college football. The Tigers' defense is ranked third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%) and Top 10 in both EPA per pass and rush. Blake Baker's pass rush will pressure Trinidad Chambliss, and if he isn't perfect, Ole Miss is going to have a tough time scoring more than 27 points. LSU's coaching staff knows Chambliss well, too, and that should give the Tigers an edge.
With Lane Kiffin on one side and Trinidad Chambliss on the other, offense is the talk heading into this game. But LSU has one of the best defenses in the country (ranked No. 2 by SP+), and its offense is also going to have to deal with a rambunctious Ole Miss crowd. I think a slow offensive start from both sides should fuel the Under (I like the Under at 56.5 or better).
I’m taking a slight lean toward Michigan State as a near 30-point underdog, largely because Notre Dame feels due for a game where it slips up against an opponent it should handle comfortably. Michigan State has been preparing for this matchup all offseason, while Notre Dame has a much bigger game against Miami on deck in Week 4. Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald also grew up surrounded by Fighting Irish fans on the South Side of Chicago, making this a game he would love to win. Notre Dame’s first two tests were Rice and Wisconsin, and its track record of overlooking weaker opponents makes me comfortable taking the Spartans to keep this within 30.
Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 13 total points through two games, with all 13 coming against Wisconsin in Week 1. Michigan State has only faced Toledo and Eastern Michigan to open the season, so this will be a significant step up in competition for the Spartans’ offense. I expect Notre Dame to do the heavy lifting offensively, but Michigan State’s defense should be capable of keeping this from turning into a complete blowout. If the Spartans can limit the Irish early, I see a 41-10 final, keeping this game under the total.
My power ratings made this spread nine, so we have some value there, especially above a key number of 10. West Virginia played one bad half vs Coastal Carolina in a game where they were up 24-0, so that final was a bit misleding. Virginia is getting too much respect in the market and I'm not there yet with them.
Texas is coming off a massive comeback against top-ranked Ohio State and has Tennessee waiting next weekend, creating a potential lookahead spot against UTSA. The Longhorns also enter Week 3 with some unnecessary off-the-field distractions surrounding Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning. Meanwhile, UTSA is coming off a 31-26 win over Texas State, in which the Roadrunners nearly reached 400 total yards while committing zero turnovers. Texas should have enough talent to build an early lead, but I expect the Longhorns to take their foot off the gas with SEC play looming. Trust UTSA to keep this within 30.
San Diego State's ineptitude on offense could be its demise. The Aztecs are ranked 93rd on offense by SP+ and 122nd in available yards percentage. James Madison has a potent run game (46th in EPA per rush) and top-notch special teams (zero missed kicks, three return TDs). If JMU builds a lead, SDSU isn't built for comebacks.
Sacramento State wasn't ready for the FBS, and it has shown. The Hornets are 0-2 ATS in their games against FBS opponents, while North Dakota State was clearly ready for the FBS and is 2-0 ATS against FBS opponents. The Bison have an offense that's 33rd in EPA per rush and one of the top defenses in the G6. This is poised to be a blowout.
San Jose State has won two straight games, but they came against Eastern Michigan and Cal Poly, both of whom are ranked outside the Top 130 by SP+. The Spartans outscored those teams 57-41. Fresno State is ranked 75th by SP+, with one of the best G6 defenses (49th), and beat Sac State by 46 last week. The Bulldogs' defense can lead them to a decisive win.
Purdue very easily could've won last week as a home dog vs Wake Forest, but went on to lose in double OT. What's the spread here if Purdue wins that game? Probably not 14.5, so there's value there. UCLA has had misleading final scores in its two wins season. My power ratings only made this spread 11 points making this one of my biggest disparities of the week.
Purdue is improved in year two under head coach Barry Odom. Last week they nearly pulled a small upset at home versus Wake Forest before losing by two.
Wake Forest converted a 4th-and-15 in the second overtime. Change that one unlikely conversion and Purdue enters this game 2-0. You have to ask would the Boilermakers still be catching more than two touchdowns here? I have my doubts.
Oregon State's offense had no problems moving the ball against Houston and Texas Tech. QB Braden Atkinson is Top 5 in the country in passing yards (789), and freshman Jesse Legree leads the nation in receiving yards (376). Those two should put points up on Montana, but the Grizz can score, too. Montana QB Keali'i Ah Yat led the FCS in passing yards last year (4,070).
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Listed in the table are unit details, which show the total profit or loss based on a bettor placing $100 on each of the last 100 college football picks made by the computer, on both the opening and closing lines.
Take advantage of these free college football picks before you wager any money at sportsbooks.
As human beings, we're bound to be biased with our picks and potentially fall into the trap of swinging with the public. With advanced stats growing in popularity and getting harder to track, college football computer predictions are starting to become more relied on.
Betting on a moneyline simply means you're picking the outright winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin or total. If the team you choose wins, then your bet hits. Here's what it will look like over at your favorite sportsbook:
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -120 |
| Missouri Tigers | +150 |
In this case, Alabama is favored to win the game as its moneyline odds have a minus sign (-) in front of the number. The favorites will have the minus sign present, and the underdogs will have a plus sign (+). Easy, right?
Betting the spread gives your bet a bit more breathing room. Here, you don't need to sweat out a team to win. Instead, you can wager on the point differential on the scoreboard.
Betting on the spread is a good idea when the moneyline profits aren't enticing. There's no point betting on Alabama as a heavy -1500 favorite over Missouri. But taking Missouri to keep the scoring margin within a certain frame will get you more bang for your buck.
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -24.5 (-105) |
| Missouri Tigers | +24.5 (-115) |
In this example, the Tide are favored to dominate their game against Missouri, outperforming them by at least 24.5 points.
If Alabama does win by more than 25 points, that would mean the Crimson Tide covered the spread. But if the Tide won by just 20 points, then that would mean the Tigers "covered the spread" instead.
If you think the outcome of a game could flip in either direction, then an Over/Under is the way to go. This bet relies on the combined score from both teams and whether it goes Over or Under the point total listed at sportsbooks. Then, who cares who wins?
| Team | Total |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | O 52.5 (-110) |
| Missouri Tigers | U 52.5 (-110) |
In this example, oddsmakers have set the total score for the game at 52.5 points. The choice is now up to you. If you think the Tide and Tigers will score a combined total of more than 52.5 points, 53 points or more, then pick the Over. If you're thinking otherwise, then bet the Under, and the bet will hit if they score fewer than 52.5 points.
If the set number was a whole number like 52 points and the two teams score exactly that amount, then it is considered a push and you'd get your money back.
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