Diego Pavia Rushing Yards Props • Vanderbilt
D. Pavia
quarterback QB • Vanderbilt
Missouri @ Vanderbilt Picks & Props
MIZZ vs VAN Picks
NCAAF Picks
Score a Touchdown
JS
Junior Sherrill Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)
Ed Scimia
Betting Analyst
Total
o52.5 (-105)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
These offenses are good. They have clear paths to regularly scoring. The exploits of Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia are well noted, but the offense has quietly turned into a well-rounded unit. Multiple things can be true. Vandy ranks 4th overall in EPA per rush, and a big part of that is Pavia on the ground. Missouri has done a pretty good job of slowing down QB runs throughout the season. However, they haven’t been great overall at slowing down traditional runs, ranking just 70th nationally in EPA allowed per rush. I think other runners outside of Pavia can have success in this matchup and give Vandy consistent offense.
MoneyLine
MIZZ (+140)
Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst
Missouri's defense fares well against mobile quarterbacks. If that reins in Diego Pavia, it should spell the end of Vanderbilt's dramatic run. Furthermore, Missouri enjoys the edge both offensively and defensively in late-down conversions. This unexpectedly high-stakes matchup should be determined on the margins, and a late-downs edge is the biggest of the margins.
TD Passes
BP
Beau Pribula u1.5 TD Passes (-210)
Projection 1.104 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
TD Passes
Diego Pavia u1.5 TD Passes (-120)
Projection 1.4892 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Passing Yards
Diego Pavia u217.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 206.2471 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Passing Yards
BP
Beau Pribula u209.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 201.8087 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Receiving Yards
MJ
Marquis Johnson o32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 41.9088 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
JS
Junior Sherrill o34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 44.1113 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
KC
Kevin Coleman Jr. o53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 61.9556 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
BN
Brett Norfleet o25.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 30.5213 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
Eli Stowers u45.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 43.9821 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Rushing Yards
Diego Pavia o53.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 63.0732 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
MIZZ vs VAN Consensus Picks
More ConsensusMIZZ vs VAN Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Sedrick Alexander Rushing Yards Props • Vanderbilt
S. Alexander
running back RB • Vanderbilt
Ahmad Hardy Rushing Yards Props • Missouri
A. Hardy
running back RB • Missouri
Beau Pribula Rushing Yards Props • Missouri
B. Pribula
quarterback QB • Missouri
MIZZ vs VAN Trends
Missouri Trends
Missouri have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.35 Units / 9% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.78 Units / 19% ROI)
Over
Under
Missouri has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Over
Under
Missouri has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Missouri have only covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 13 games (-6.30 Units / -43% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Missouri has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 13 games (-4.70 Units / -30% ROI)
Over
Under
Missouri has only hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 13 games (-3.80 Units / -27% ROI)
Over
Under
Missouri has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (-3.40 Units / -0% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Missouri has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 4 games (-2.40 Units / -53% ROI)
Vanderbilt Trends
Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+7.35 Units / 20% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Vanderbilt have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.15 Units / 39% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.20 Units / 6% ROI)
MIZZ
VAN
Vanderbilt has only hit the Team Total Under in 1 of their last 7 games (-5.95 Units / -73% ROI)
Vanderbilt has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 13 games (-4.95 Units / -32% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-4.80 Units / -52% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt has only hit the Game Total Under in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-3.50 Units / -40% ROI)
Over
Under