Golden State Warriors

Picks

Stephen Curry’s points prop is set at 27.5 with the Over priced at -122, and that’s a number worth attacking, as I make it closer to -160. Davion Mitchell is an excellent point-of-attack defender who moves his feet well and keeps ball handlers in front of him, but that’s not how Curry does his damage. One of Mitchell’s weaknesses is navigating off-ball screens and chasing constant movement, which plays directly into Curry’s strengths. Miami also can’t simply switch all of those actions, as doing so would create mismatches elsewhere given Mitchell’s size. All of that sets up well for Curry to find scoring opportunities.

On the season, Bam is averaging 2.8 dimes on 4.6 potential assists. But in that four-game frame, his potential helpers have jumped to 5.5. There’s been a spike in his playmaking over the past month, with Adebayo averaging 3.5 assists in his previous 11 games. Player projections for tonight’s tilt in San Francisco range from 3.0 to 4.2 assists from Adebayo tonight, with my number at 3.5. That should have the Over 2.5 priced closer to -200 than its current ask of -150 at bet365.