NBA Picks

Cameron Payne has logged 12.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.1 more than he's logged overall this season.. The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court.. The matchup against the Pistons is a positive one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PGs this year (21.2).. The 76ers have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.. This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 5.0 foul shots per game (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Detroit Pistons, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.

The Magic have played at the 7th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games at home.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Magic grade out 2ndworst in in the league while on their home court with only 8.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The Phoenix Suns have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.. The matchup against the Suns may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted just 1.6 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the league).

This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have put up 12.2 points per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Suns, marking this as a challenging matchup for offensive output.. The Phoenix Suns have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Indiana Pacers.. Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.1 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Suns, struggling to draw fouls.

The Nets check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Hawks have played at the quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets check in as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The matchup vs. Atlanta is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Hawks are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged the 9th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (13.6).. The Hawks have played at the quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Brooklyn Nets.. The matchup against Atlanta may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 4.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Atlanta Hawks are at home (3rd-most in the NBA).

With respect to treys, the Bucks's superb 38.7% rate of converted threes places 2nd-best in the NBA this year.. The matchup against Miami is a strong one for three-pointers; when the Miami Heat are on their home court, opposing starting PFs have put up the highest 3-point rate in the league this year (46.4%).. The Bucks are expected to see an increase in plays today from sharing the court with the fastest tempo team in the league this year (the Heat).

The Heat will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Milwaukee Bucks).

Memphis has lost five straight and will be missing as many as six regulars Thursday against Dallas

In regard to shooting, the Memphis Grizzlies's poor 46.3% field goal percentage rates 9th-worst in the league this year.. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a hard one; they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4).. This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

We’re going back to the well on De’Aaron Fox’s points prop, and it’s easy to see why. He’s been consistently cashing tickets, and the matchup against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday sets up well once again. Denver doesn’t have a true point-of-attack defender who can keep up with Fox’s speed. If he’s able to generate switches, he should be able to attack Jamal Murray, whose lateral quickness can be exploited in space. The Nuggets are also on the second night of a back-to-back, which could play right into Fox’s strengths. He thrives when pushing the pace in transition and attacking early in the shot clock before the defense is fully set. The injury report is another angle worth monitoring. Victor Wembanyama is currently listed as questionable, and if he were to sit, Fox’s usage would likely climb even higher. I price Fox at -175 to clear this total, and that projection already assumes Wembanyama is playing.

San Antonio is 9-1 SU over its last 10 and has taken four of the last five head-to-head meetings against Denver. With the Nuggets on the second leg of a back-to-back, back the Spurs to cover at home.

Chet Holmgren has missed the last two games with an illness but is expected to return on Thursday. Knowing how the Thunder typically handle their rotation, it’s reasonable to assume he’s close to full health, as they’re usually quick to rest their starters if there’s any concern. In his last game before the absence, Holmgren was extremely aggressive from deep against the Knicks, knocking down six three-pointers. Those perimeter looks should be available again in this matchup. Neemias Queta is a massive, high-energy rim protector who will likely be focused on slowing down the drives of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That attention should naturally open space for Holmgren, who often operates more like a movement shooter than a traditional big. Oklahoma City also has a couple of days off following this game, and with the matchup expected to be competitive, the minutes should be there for Holmgren. I price him at -165 to clear this total.

Neemias Queta is grabbing a career-high 8.3 rebounds per game, and he’s corralled at least nine in 23 appearances and exactly eight in 10 more. Quetta has averaged just 7.5 rebounds against Eastern Conference opponents but a whopping 9.6 against the West.

Over the last four games with Isaiah Hartenstein out or limited, the Oklahoma City Thunder have surrendered the second-most rebounds. Hartenstein is out again, and Queta should stay hot in this advantageous matchup after grabbing 9+ boards in two of his last three outings overall and three of his last six on the road.

Luka Doncic is trading at +118 for the Over 8.5 assists, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -155. Simply put, the Bulls don’t have a point-of-attack defender capable of slowing down Doncic. He should be able to get into the lane at will, put defenders on his hip, and force the defense to collapse on his drives. When that happens, the passing lanes to his teammates will naturally open up, creating plenty of assist opportunities. Chicago also lacks the size and disciplined rim protection needed to avoid getting pulled out of position by Doncic’s playmaking. With Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes both healthy and available, the lob game should be there all night as well, giving Doncic multiple ways to generate assists.

Matas Buzelis posted a career-best 41 points on Tuesday against the Golden State Warriors, but I’m not chasing points after one big game. The second-year man has averaged 24 points across his last six outings, scoring 20+ in all five games in which he logged at least 30 minutes. 

In 35 games with 30+ minutes, he’s averaged 19 points, compared to just a 12-point average in games with fewer than 30 minutes. Buzelis averaged just 14.8 points across the first 50 games of the season, but he’s averaged 19.4 across his last 14.