NBA Picks

James Harden is priced at +114 for over 8.5 assists, and that’s a number I’m willing to hit—I price it closer to -120 for him to clear. This sets up as a game where Harden can fully control and manipulate the defense, taking what’s given to him and generating a high volume of potential assists. The Hawks are starting the mobile but undersized Onyeka Okongwu at center, which creates a difficult matchup. The Cavaliers have not one, but two lob threats that Harden can consistently target above the rim. If Atlanta collapses to take that away, it will open up clean skip passes to shooters on the perimeter for three-point opportunities. The key to this bet is having both bigs on the floor, and if that holds, it should lead to Harden comfortably clearing the 8.5 assist mark.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has dialed up his production in this closing stretch as the Hawks reach as high as the No. 5 seed in the East. He has cleared this prop in his last three games while shooting 16-of-29 (55.2%) from deep. That is the kind of shooting that defenses simply cannot stop, certainly not in the regular season.

The Orlando Magic are desperate for wins to climb out of the Play-In Tournament, and in those situations, the approach is simple—put the ball in the hands of your best player. That strategy becomes even more appealing if the Timberwolves treat this as a rest spot, which would dramatically shift the matchup. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle are already out, while Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert are questionable. With Edwards and Randle sidelined, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Minnesota rest Gobert as well on the second night of a back-to-back. If that happens, the Timberwolves go from having one of the league’s top rim protectors to offering little resistance against a downhill force like Paolo Banchero. Without interior defense, this becomes a much easier matchup for him to exploit. I expect Banchero to benefit from these conditions and believe he should be priced closer to -175 for over 21.5 points.

One more flagrant foul from Gobert elicits a two-game suspension that would roll over into the postseason. Minnesota should not risk that in either of its last two games. So given Gobert is likely to rest to close the week, expect him to play tonight and to play genuine minutes. With so much other production removed from the Timberwolves’ lineup, genuine minutes from Gobert should result in more field-goal attempts than usual.

Duncan Robinson picked up the scoring slack for Detroit, knocking down 28 of 59 3-point attempts (47.5%) over his last eight outings. He’s knocked down three or more shots from distance in six of the last eight contests and player projections sit as high as 3.3 makes from downtown. Even at full strength, Milwaukee struggles to protect the perimeter. On the season, the Bucks rank 27th in opponent 3-point success (37.4%) and allow the second most triples per game (14.8). Those numbers have only swelled over the past month (16.0 3PM, 39.4% last 21 games).

The Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jokic leads the NBA with 12.9 rpg and has snagged 14+ boards in seven of his last eight games. The three-time NBA MVP has an extremely favorable matchup tonight against a Grizzlies squad that is tanking. Memphis is especially weak inside after trading away Jaren Jackson Jr., and shutting down Zach Edey and Santi Aldama. The Griz are 26th in the NBA in rebounding rate (48.1%) with that number falling to just 43.4% since the start of March. That combined with their fast tempo has resulted in them allowing 50.9 rpg over the last 15 games — easily the worst number in the league.

Gordon does it all for Denver, including setting up his teammates. Since getting back to his normal workload in mid-March, Gordon is averaging 3.0 assists on 6.3 potential assists over his last seven games. He’s dished out five and three dimes in overtime wins against Portland and San Antonio and faces a much easier defense from the Grizzlies. Memphis gives up the fifth most assists to foes and sits 20th in assist rate allowed. Player projections for Gordan all sit north of three assists with a ceiling of 3.5 dimes tonight. 

Henderson is a dangerous dribble-drive weapon and excellent at getting to the rim, making him a live offensive option for the Trail Blazers tonight. He’s attempted at least 11 field goals in each of his last six games and can draw contact and score from the foul line. Without Victor Wembanyama, that rim protection disappears faster than the brisket at 2M Smokehouse. Scoot welcomes pace and his player projections sit between between 14 and 17 points. Not only will he find his way to the rim, but he’s also been shooting well from deep, with a 9-for-18 count from beyond the arc the last three games.

The Spurs rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Clippers have been winning games, but not against good competition. Their questionable perimeter defense and lack of depth will be exposed in this matchup against the Thunder.

Los Angeles is running thin in the frontcourt. Chet Holmgren will draw checks from the slower Lopez or smaller forwards John Collins and Nicolas Batum. His points production is forecasted between 15.5 and 16.2 versus a scoring prop of 14.5 O/U. I believe there’s a much higher ceiling for OKC’s 7-footer, with these numbers tempered by his reduced action in the Thunder’s blowouts. Holmgren dropped 22 points in his last matchup with L.A. in December and the Clippers still had Ivica Zubac at the time. 

Even when playing legitimate minutes, Booker has fallen short of this modest prop in two of his last three games and nine of his last 14 games.

Devin Booker is priced at -110 for over 26.5 points, and I see value on this number—I have it closer to -180. It’s the second night of a back-to-back, and while Booker logged a heavy 38 minutes in the first game, this projection still has him in the low 30s, which is appealing for this spot. There’s also a chance that some of his teammates dealing with injuries either sit for maintenance or see reduced minutes, which would shift even more usage onto Booker against the Mavericks. Dallas may also be shorthanded defensively, with several wing defenders questionable, along with Daniel Gafford at center. If Gafford plays, he tends to sit in a deep drop coverage, which allows Booker to comfortably step into his preferred mid-range jumpers. With the expected role, matchup, and potential usage boost, this sets up as a strong spot for Booker to clear the number.