Indiana vs Miami Picks & Props
IND vs MIA Picks
NBA PicksPlay up to 63%. With Haliburton and McConnell sidelined, Siakam should carry more playmaking responsibility alongside Nembhard. He's recorded at least four assists in two of his last three games, and Miami's defense has struggled to contain opposing forwards. I'll back another four-assist performance from the veteran.
Play up to 60%. Indiana's frontcourt is missing Zubac, creating a favorable rebounding matchup for Giannis. He's grabbed 32 boards across his last two outings, and the Pacers rank 24th in opponent rebounds allowed. With Indiana lacking size inside, Antetokounmpo should have plenty of opportunities to reach double figures again.
Play up to 55%. Indiana has stayed within eight points in consecutive losses, while Miami has yet to cover at home. The Heat are allowing nearly 40% shooting from three and 28.4 assists per game, giving a Pacers offense built on ball movement an opportunity to keep this contest close.
At 71%, I'll gladly back the Heat on the moneyline, as I make Miami a 77% favorite. While their 1-4 start may be keeping the market hesitant, the injuries to Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are significant. Ivica Zubac's doubtful status is even more impactful here, leaving Jay Huff to handle most of the center minutes against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, who should have a major advantage inside.
I'm pairing Indiana +8.5 with Under 237.5 and Obi Toppin to make at least two threes. The Pacers' backcourt injuries could limit scoring, but Toppin is shooting 40.7% from deep against a Miami defense that has struggled to contain perimeter shooters.
IND vs MIA Consensus Picks
52% picking Indiana vs Miami to go Under
Total PicksIND 237, MIA 257
IND vs MIA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
K. Thompson
(SF)
o7.5 Points Scored
10.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
24.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Huff
(C)
o8.5 Points Scored
10.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
23.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Nembhard
(SG)
u17.5 Points Scored
15.74 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
19.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
G. Antetokounmpo
(PF)
u31.5 Points Scored
29.24 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.3
DIFFERENCE
19.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
B. Portis Jr.
(PF)
o10.5 Points Scored
12.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
16.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
P. Siakam
(PF)
u23.5 Points Scored
22.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. Walker
(PF)
u10.5 Points Scored
9.54 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
12.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Nesmith
(SF)
u13.5 Points Scored
12.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
12.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
K. Oubre Jr.
(SF)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
T. Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o8.5 Points Scored
9.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
3.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
P. Larsson
(SG)
o11.5 Points Scored
12.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
L. Nance Jr.
(PF)
u6.5 Points Scored
6.26 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-1.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
B. Adebayo
(C)
u18.5 Points Scored
18.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-4.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Mitchell
(PG)
o11.5 Points Scored
11.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Wiggins
(SF)
o12.5 Points Scored
12.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-11.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
K. Oubre Jr.
(SF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
20.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Nembhard
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
18.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Walker
(PF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
5.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
18.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Nesmith
(SF)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
4.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
J. Huff
(C)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.05 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
7.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
L. Nance Jr.
(PF)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
P. Siakam
(PF)
u7.5 Total Rebounds
7.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
B. Portis Jr.
(PF)
u7.5 Total Rebounds
6.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
B. Adebayo
(C)
u10.5 Total Rebounds
9.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
4.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
G. Antetokounmpo
(PF)
o11.5 Total Rebounds
11.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
1.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
P. Larsson
(SG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-1.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Mitchell
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Wiggins
(SF)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.19 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-3.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Nembhard
(SG)
u8.5 Total Assists
7.51 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
24.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Wiggins
(SF)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
13.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
L. Nance Jr.
(PF)
u1.5 Total Assists
1.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
12.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Huff
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
J. Walker
(PF)
u2.5 Total Assists
2.22 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
8.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
K. Thompson
(SF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
5.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
B. Portis Jr.
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
B. Adebayo
(C)
u3.5 Total Assists
3.48 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
1.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
T. Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o0.5 Total Assists
1.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
P. Siakam
(PF)
u4.5 Total Assists
4.08 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-6.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
P. Larsson
(SG)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
G. Antetokounmpo
(PF)
u6.5 Total Assists
6.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Mitchell
(PG)
o6.5 Total Assists
6.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-10.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
K. Oubre Jr.
(SF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Nesmith
(SF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Huff
(C)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
18.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
J. Walker
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
17.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
B. Portis Jr.
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
13.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
G. Antetokounmpo
(PF)
u0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
13.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
B. Adebayo
(C)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
P. Siakam
(PF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-1.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
K. Thompson
(SF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
K. Oubre Jr.
(SF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-4.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Mitchell
(PG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.53 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-7.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Nembhard
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-9.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
L. Nance Jr.
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
0.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-11.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
P. Larsson
(SG)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-12.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
T. Hardaway Jr.
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Nesmith
(SF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Wiggins
(SF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Over is 8-1 in Heat last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
ROI Trends
IND vs MIA Top User Picks
Indiana Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | maitovip | 6-0-0 | +3000 |
| 2 | Dannysgirl | 6-0-0 | +3000 |
| 3 | pibabe29 | 7-1-0 | +2950 |
| 4 | LIVANI99 | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 5 | FoxyFoxes | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 6 | R_MUNDO | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 7 | boedad | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 8 | BradytheK9 | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 9 | Brayy_Wyatt | 7-3-0 | +2850 |
| 10 | DavePaliwoda | 9-1-0 | +2850 |
| All Pacers Money Leaders | |||
Miami Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | dispnum1 | 8-2-0 | +3900 |
| 2 | burley | 9-1-0 | +3550 |
| 3 | AMOZONS | 6-0-0 | +3000 |
| 4 | willyums12 | 6-0-0 | +3000 |
| 5 | Suzguy123 | 7-1-0 | +2950 |
| 6 | goucla | 7-1-0 | +2950 |
| 7 | nextclique | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 8 | nbahoops | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 9 | wordziplay | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 10 | biggestgm | 7-3-0 | +2850 |
| All Heat Money Leaders | |||