Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 15, 2026
DET
@
CLE
Fri, May 15 • 7:00 PM ET
DET +4.5 (-115)
The Detroit Pistons are on the ropes, and JB Bickerstaff showed us in Game 5 that when your season is on the line, nobody’s minutes are safe—even if you’re an NBA All-Star. Jalen Duren is a -42 in plus-minus over the last three games, and Bickerstaff benched him for the final 17 minutes of Game 5 in favor of Paul Reed, the Pistons’ third-string center. I love that Bickerstaff is coaching to win rather than trying to cater to his All-Star center. The Cleveland Cavaliers may have won the last three games in the series, but it’s not like they’ve been dominating throughout. They were down nine points with 2:36 remaining in Game 5, and this team still has clear flaws. I think Cleveland is laying too many points on Friday. I make the Pistons closer to 2-point underdogs in this spot, so if you’re going to give me 4.5 points, I’ll gladly hit the button on Detroit.
o106.5 Team Total (-115)
Cleveland's offense has been rolling at home in the postseason, averaging 118 PPG while scoring at least 112 in all six home playoff contests. Their playoff offensive rating in Cleveland is actually higher than their regular season mark. Detroit continues to send them to the line at a high rate, with Cleveland averaging 28.6 free-throw attempts per game in the series, including 38 and 41 in the last two matchups.
SA
@
MIN
Fri, May 15 • 9:30 PM ET
MIN +5.5 (-103)
The Wolves are down 3-2 with their season on the line, so I think you’re going to see Chris Finch empty the clip with his lineups and schemes, trying just about anything to slow down Wembanyama and the Spurs. The good news for the Wolves is that they actually have the personnel to get creative because of their frontcourt depth with Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle. Wembanyama is obviously a massive problem, but the Wolves do have the right type of perimeter defender in Jaden McDaniels to slow down De'Aaron Fox. And realistically, can Randle continue to be this ineffective offensively for the entire series? We also know Anthony Edwards is now playing 40-plus minutes, unlike the 25-minute workload he had earlier in the series, and I expect Finch to lean more heavily on Reid in Game 6 as well. At the end of the day, I think 5.5 points is simply too many in this spot. I make the Wolves closer to 3.5-point underdogs.
Victor Wembanyama u3.5 Total Blocks (+108)
Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert received his fewest minutes of the postseason, as Finch utilzed stretch forwards Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Jalen McDaniels at the No. 5 spot in order to draw Wembamyama away from the rim. Wemby finished with only three blocks across 33 minutes in Game 5 and a more calculated attack from Minnesota – one that draws the 7-footer to the outside – could keep his shot swatting to a minimum. Projections for Wembanyama run from 2.5 to 3.5 blocks in Game 6 with most models sitting below three rejections.
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