Boston vs Atlanta Picks & Props

Jalen Johnson is priced at -108 for over 7.5 assists, and I’m comfortable backing this number—I price it closer to -190. The matchup against the Boston Celtics sets up well for his playmaking. With Jayson Tatum doubtful and Jaylen Brown questionable, Boston may be forced to rely heavily on players like Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman as primary defenders. Neither has the speed to keep up with Johnson in transition, where he can rebound, push the pace, and deliver hit-ahead passes over the top. Neemias Queta provides rim protection, but he’ll likely be forced into a deep drop to contain Johnson’s downhill pressure. That naturally pulls help from the wings, which should open up skip passes to shooters and generate additional potential assist opportunities. When you combine the matchup with Johnson’s role in transition and half-court creation, this is a strong spot for him to clear the number.

Since the start of March, Jalen Johnson is logging 8.8 dimes per contest and has recorded Over 7.5 assists in nine of 12 appearances. Atlanta is averaging 91.8 field goal attempts per game this season, the second-most in the NBA, and that high-volume approach will also help Johnson’s chances of picking up Over 7.5 assists.

This is easily my favorite moneyline/spread bet on the board for Monday: Atlanta Hawks at -116. Boston has listed Jayson Tatum as doubtful, which makes sense on the second night of a back-to-back. Even if Jaylen Brown and Derrick White return after sitting out the first leg, Atlanta matches up well on the perimeter. With defenders like Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they have the personnel to disrupt Boston’s primary creators. Tatum’s absence is especially significant in this matchup. Without that third elite shot creator, Boston becomes much easier to scheme against—particularly against a Hawks team built to defend wings. I make Atlanta closer to a -170 favorite here, and that’s still assuming both Brown and White are active. If either one sits, the value on this number only grows.

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 54.1% on shot attempts from the field (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Atlanta Hawks, identifying this as a favorable matchup.. The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 4th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games on their home court, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Celtics.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 6th-best in the NBA while on the road with 12.7 offensive boards per game this year.

The Celtics check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games on the road.. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year.. Over the last 20 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Hawks, struggling to get to the foul line.

The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic tempo in the league this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Atlanta Hawks.. The Atlanta Hawks check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).