NBA Picks

Victor Wembanyama continues to have the best offensive season of his young career. The San Antonio Spurs center is averaging 24.2 ppg on 50.5% shooting from the field. He’s also getting to the line more and shooting 81.8% from the charity stripe. Wembanyama is in a great spot against the Milwaukee Bucks this afternoon, who have lost four of five and allowed 123.0 ppg during that span

The Bucks are way too late to the tanking party, but that hasn’t stopped Doc Rivers’ men from losing their last two games by a combined 64 points. After those beatdowns, just about the last thing Milwaukee needs is a visit from a ruthless San Antonio squad. 

The Spurs are 16-8-1 ATS in their last 25 contests, and I’m siding with Wemby and Co. here despite the massive spread. San Antonio has been reliable on the road all year, posting a 26-11 SU mark, and the early Saturday tip should only be a minor obstacle. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 outings.

Naz Reid should see some minutes at the 3 in Jaden McDaniels’s stead, and he should take those added minutes and turn them into transition buckets, offensive rebounds and open 3s.

With respect to three-pointers, the Detroit Pistons's unimpressive 34.9% rate of sunk threes places 10th-weakest in the NBA this year.. The Pistons have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games when playing away from home.

As Charlotte has worked its way up the Eastern Conference standings, Knueppel has continued to be a major contributor. The former Duke standout has hit at least four shots from deep in three of his last four games. The Philadelphia 76ers haven’t been great at shutting down opponents at the three-point line, where teams are shooting 35.7% against them. Knueppel is in prime position to take full advantage of that fact today.

The Hornets are starting to heat up once again, and they are picking the right time to do so. They've won five straight, and now get a Sixers side that may be without Maxey once again. I'll take the team that's healthier and the one with the more efficient offense. 

Jalen Johnson has been one of the most versatile all-around threats in the NBA this year, averaging a combined PRA of 41.3 per contest this season. The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, giving up 121.2 ppg on the season and ranking 28th in defensive efficiency. Sacramento has lost four of its last five while playing out the string, and I like Johnson to put up big numbers against the Kings tonight.

The Sacramento Kings have played at the 10th-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Atlanta Hawks.. The Atlanta Hawks have been the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have allowed the third-most points per game at 128.1, while the Grizzlies have surrendered the fourth-most at 126.4. In that span, Chicago’s 120.7 defensive rating ranks 24th, and Memphis’ 125.1 defensive rating ranks 28th.

Chicago sports the fastest pace across the last 10 games at 104.8, while Memphis isn’t far behind in ninth with a 101.1 pace. 

Injuries have decimated both teams, and both are playing the second legs of back-to-back sets, but fatigue isn’t something I’m worried about. Memphis players rarely sniff 30 minutes these days, and the roster is one of the youngest in the Association. Chicago is going deep down the bench, so the available players should all have relatively fresh legs.

The matchup against the Bulls is a hard one for shots from the field; opposing starting PFs have totaled the 3rd-least shot attempts per game in the league this year (11.5).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 3rdworst in in the league with a mere 7.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Utah has either lost by less than 17 points or outright won eight of their last 10 games, including a close loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday. The Jazz are 18-17 ATS on the road and 16-16 as the road underdog. Utah is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points on the road.

The Phoenix Suns haven’t played well enough as of late to be favored by 17 points. The Suns are 7-3 ATS across their last 10 games, but Phoenix is just 4-6 straight up and won only one game by 17 or more points. Phoenix is just 10-11 ATS as the home favorite and 2-2 when favored by at least 10 points at home.

Phoenix has the rest advantage tonight, as the Jazz are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set. Bettors shouldn’t be concerned, as the Jazz are 8-6 ATS on no rest. I’ll take the shorthanded Jazz to keep this game within punching distance and cover a monstrously large spread.

The Jazz rank as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as it relates to 3-point shots.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 29.1% on 3-pointers (3rd-weakest in the NBA) vs. the Suns, designating this as a challenging matchup.. The Suns have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Jazz.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed out (knee), and there’s no reason for him to play considering the Bucks are 2-8 over their last 10 and out of the play-in race. Take the Clippers to pull away at Fiserv Forum.