The weather in Kansas City might end up being the biggest obstacle for this bet, as it’s expected to be rainy throughout the night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the game gets postponed. That said, there’s no way I’m passing up a -113 price on Joe Ryan against the Royals—even with the risk of a void. I make the Twins closer to -147 favorites in this spot. Ryan has absolutely dominated the Royals in his career, which gives Minnesota a clear edge on the mound. Kansas City is starting left-hander Noah Cameron, and one thing that stands out is Royce Lewis hitting out of the eight spot in the Twins lineup. As a right-handed bat, he can help turn the lineup over and create additional pressure on Cameron by setting the table for the top of the order. With the Royals also missing pieces at the back end of their bullpen, including Carlos Estévez, I’ll back the Twins on the moneyline.
These teams have combined for a 7-1 record to the Under to start the season. Both lineups have struggled, ranking 23rd and 28th in OPS. Joe Ryan has consistently handled Royals hitters, holding them to a .582 OPS over 110 combined at-bats. On the other side, Noah Cameron faces a Twins lineup posting a brutal .458 OPS vs lefties and dominated them last year with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings of work.
The Royals have only scored nine times through the first four games of the season, and the Twins have only scored 12 runs through their own four games. So, add potential rain to both teams respectively ranking 26th and 23rd in runs per game in 2025, and I like this total to go Under the number tonight.
Royals lefty Noah Cameron outpitched his peripherals last year with his 2.99 ERA well below his 4.10 xFIP, in addition to his unsustainably good .241 BABIP and 84.0% strand rate. Minnesota is countering with ace Joe Ryan, and he’s turned in a tidy 3.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 3.58 xFIP across 55 games since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. Of course, the Royals have also only scored nine times through the first four games after finishing 26th in runs per game in 2025.