MLB Picks

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to more offense.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's game.

The Detroit Tigers have issues to resolve on the road, but they’ve been a different animal at Comerica Park through the first six weeks of the season. Boasting a 12-3 mark at home, Detroit is understandably favored here against a Boston Red Sox squad that’s lost four of its past five contests.

The Tigers have a big edge in tonight’s pitching matchup, as Tarik Skubal faces fellow lefty Payton Tolle – and the hosts are 3-1 in their ace’s last four starts. There’s also the benefit of having seen Skubal rip through this Boston lineup last month, racking up 10 strikeouts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits Nick Martinez's offerings well, ranking among the league's best at smoking sinkers and changeups. He'll clear his total bases prop tonight.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Janson Junk throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber has big-time power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.. In the past week's worth of games, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.7-mph over the course of the season to 109-mph lately.

Aaron Judge is locked in at the plate, going Over this line in five of his last seven games while continuing to deliver power and consistency. He’s had success against Shane Baz in the past, going 4-for-10 lifetime with a pair of home runs. 

Not only are the Cubbies mispriced again today, they’re facing Reds righty Chase Petty, and he has just six innings of MLB experience and hasn’t been sharp to start the season with Triple A Louisville. Petty sports a 4.38 ERA and 4.12 xFIP while allowing a 48.5% hard-hit rate across 24 2/3 minor-league innings, and Chicago enters with a league-leading .381 wOBA while averaging 6.2 runs per game during a 15-3 heater. Cubs starter Edward Cabrera has also held opposing hitters to a .231 average and .645 OPS, so it’s a tough matchup for a Cincy lineup ranking 24th in wOBA against righties.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Naylor in the 3rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Bo Naylor is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.. This year, Bo Naylor has been pulled from the game early in 11% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 8th-worst field in the league for left-handed home runs.. Bo Naylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

Chad Patrick owns a sparkling 2.47 ERA but his underlying profile is littered with red flags. He has posted a 5.52 xFIP, 5.56 SIERA, a +2.6% K-BB% – the lowest mark among today’s projected starters. He’s also allowing a 50% fly ball rate, which could be trouble against a St. Louis Cardinals offense that sits sixth in ISO and second in HR/FB vs. right-handed pitching over the past five weeks.

The #3 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest CF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Will Smith tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Steven Okert.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.

Let's not beat around the bush – the Angels suck again. Jose Soriano's 0.84 ERA will steal some headlines, but the White Sox touched him up just last week for three earned runs and nine baserunners. On the other side, Davis Martin has emerged as one of Chicago’s biggest surprises, posting a 1.95 ERA and limited the Angels to just one earned run in that same meeting. The White Sox are also 5-1 in his starts this year. Recent form further separates these teams, with Chicago ranking 10th in OPS and seventh in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks, while the Angels are a brutal 25th and 30th in those categories.

It’s not every day we get +EV on a stick like Cal Raleigh, but today is the day to back a big name at value with a +390 price. This is the top +EV home-run play on the board, per Covers projections, and has a fair price of +290. Raleigh draws a strong matchup vs. JR Ritchie, who has been fortunate with a .227 BABIP and carries shaky HR/FB numbers in a small sample. His groundball rate won’t bail him out much, and Atlanta Braves starters tend to be pushed into the 90–95 pitch range even with subpar stuff. Ritchie has been tougher on righties, but all three homers he’s allowed have come off left-handed bats — and the switch-hitting Raleigh has six of his seven homers vs. RHPs. There’s some risk with Raleigh sitting out yesterday and a recent MRI, but it came back clean. He took BP on Sunday and said he’s feeling better. The bat wasn’t slowing down anyway, with five homers over his last 11 games. 

The Giants and Padres respectively rank 30th and 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and San Fran has also scored the fewest runs per game (3.12), including just 2.5 during an active 2-8 slump. San Diego has also cooled at the dish with just 2.6 runs per game through it's own 1-4 skid, and the Padres have played to the Under in 29 of their past 50 road games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI).