MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres face Sonny Gray today, and Machado is very familiar with him. He’s 12-for-35 lifetime with three long balls. 15 of Machado’s homers last season were off righties, and Gray’s lone HR allowed this year was against a right-handed hitter. 

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. This matchup is projected to have the 2nd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the same side that Michael King throws from, Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage in today's game.. Trevor Story has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 7.6° figure is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (14th percentile).. Trevor Story has shown bad plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile with a 5.85 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Munetaka Murakami in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this contest predicts the lowest temperature on the slate today at 50°.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense grades out as the 4th-best among every team playing today.. In the last 14 days, Munetaka Murakami's swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 27.3% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

When it comes to his home run talent, Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #5 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the shallowest among all stadiums.. Kazuma Okamoto has been hot recently, putting up a a 15.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Kazuma Okamoto has averaged an impressive 103-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

Anchored by rising stars Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, the Reds lead the majors in exit velocity while ranking fifth in barrel rate. Today they take on Texas and Mackenzie Gore who generates strikes but gives up too much hard contact. The lefty was in the 20th percentile in barrel rate and exit velocity last year while posting a 4.33 xERA. Reds starter Brady Singer had an almost identical 4.27 xERA last and he allowed three runs in four innings in his 2026 debut. I don't trust him to navigate a Rangers lineup that is sixth in the majors in runs per game (5.33) and third in hard-hit rate.

Josh Jung is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. Brady Singer will hold the platoon advantage against Josh Jung in today's matchup... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Singer's huge platoon split.. Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

There’s a compelling case for the Under, which was a winning ticket in four of the last five meetings between these teams – and in all three of Cleveland’s matchups with the defending champs in L.A. this week, including a 4-1 victory on Wednesday.

With two quality starters on the mound, don’t count on the scoring getting out of hand, especially as the Guardians have a batting average of .189 through their first seven games. The hosts should have the hot bat of Chase DeLauter available again this afternoon, but I see Horton putting the clamps on Jose Ramirez and Co.

If you’re looking for a free-scoring offense, the Cubs are a good pick. They finished fifth in runs scored in 2025 and, boosted by Alex Bregman’s arrival, they’ve piled up 30 runs through their opening six contests this year. It also helps that Cade Horton is taking the ball today. He’s posted a 1.75 ERA across his past five starts, including a steady effort in his first outing of 2026.

Chicago swept Cleveland when the teams squared off last summer, with Horton pitching seven scoreless innings in one of those victories, and it’s easier to trust the visitors’ lineup here.

Getting the YRFI at -122 in a game at Coors Field is a bargain and today's pitching matchup suggests we'll get plenty of runs. Phillies righty Aaron Nola is coming off his worst season as a pro (6.01 ERA over 17 starts) and allowed five runs in five innings in his first outing this year. Colorado is giving the pill to Michael Lorenzon who surrendered seven hits and three runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. Lorenzon had a 4.64 ERA with Kansas City last year and his subpar ground ball rate and exit velocity suggest he'll struggle at Coors. Especially against a hard-hitting Phillies lineup with some big bats at the top of the order.

Schwarber already has two homers this season, and he's 9-for-24 lifetime with two bombs against Michael Lorenzen. The slugger also left the yard twice at Coors Field in 2025. 

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 9th-deepest CF fences in the league are found in Target Field.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the coldest temperature on the slate at 41°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Since the start of last season, Trevor Larnach's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 22nd percentile at 90.5 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today.. Junior Caminero has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the last two weeks — 116.9-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures of all games today at 81°.. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an advantage in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best home run batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures of all games today at 81°.. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Notching a 95.2-mph average exit velocity over the last 14 days, Pete Alonso has been in great form in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Chad Patrick will have the handedness advantage over Salvador Perez in today's matchup.. In today's game, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.9% rate (94th percentile).. Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chad Patrick.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 7th-best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.8-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters.

The  Mariners mashed away from home last season, posting 5.09 runs per game. Expect that same production as they begin their first road trip this year. The M's retained Josh Naylor while adding leadoff man Brendan Donovan to a lineup anchored by MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. They'll have success against Angels lefty Reid Detmers who has been shaky as a starter and is better out of the bullpen. Detmers didn't make a single start last year but had a 6.70 ERA in 17 starts in 2024. He started last Saturday and gave up three runs in 4 2/3 frames.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Reid Detmers will have the handedness advantage against Josh Naylor in today's game.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Josh Naylor in today's matchup.. Josh Naylor's quickness has declined this season. His 24.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 21.54 ft/sec now.. Josh Naylor has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly in recent games, compiling a -1° angle on such balls in the last two weeks.

Yordan Alvarez looks like his old self and is now hitting .417 with a 1.480 OPS, three dingers and six RBIs for the season. He also has reverse splits vs. left-handed pitchers, so don't worry about the matchup vs. Springs.

Langeliers leads the big leagues in home runs with five, and he's gone deep in all but two games so far. The Athletics face Cristian Javier tonight, who allowed two bombs in his season debut. 

Arizona could also score some runs against Atlanta starter Grant Holmes. His fastball's effectiveness was in the bottom 8% of pitchers last year, and he struggled giving up hard-hit balls and walking too many batters.

Holmes took a loss in his first start of the year, giving up seven baserunners and three runs in five innings to the Royals. He's allowed nine runs in nine innings in two career starts against Arizona.

The Braves are hitting better against southpaws (.286/.392/.476) than right-handers (.279/.347/.459) this season. 

Three Atlanta players have a career OPS over 1.000 against Rodriguez, and Matt Olson (.971) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.833) just missed.

Juan Soto is 4-for-11 with a double and two dingers in his career vs. Tyler Mahle, good for a .338 expected batting average and a .976 expected slugging.

These two offenses have had a slow start to the season, and a matchup at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park likely results in a low-scoring game. 

The Giants have an 80 wRC+ en route to a 2-3-2 O/U record, while the Mets have an 88 wRC+ and are 2-5 O/U. 

Both bullpens have a SIERA under 3.90 and have most of their best arms well-rested. They’re throwing behind starting pitchers projected to have an ERA below 4.00 this season.