New York @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge in today's game. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Austin Wells will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Austin Wells usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen. There has been a significant improvement in Austin Wells's launch angle from last year's 16.9° to 21.2° this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Wells's true offensive skill to be a .317, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .031 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .286 wOBA.

Drew Rasmussen will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Aaron Judge in today's matchup. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Aaron Judge will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Aaron Judge has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 25.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 11.5% in the past two weeks. Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 99.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 96.9-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Chandler Simpson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 83.5-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 75.7-mph in the past 7 days. Compared to his seasonal angle of 0.8°, Chandler Simpson has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.6°) in the past two weeks. Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 0th percentile this year.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Anthony Volpe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 16.6% on the season to 36.4% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best batter in MLB when assessing his batting average ability. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Trent Grisham ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Trent Grisham will have an advantage in today's matchup. Trent Grisham has posted a .350 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ben Rice ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Ben Rice will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's game. Ben Rice pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Paul Goldschmidt has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Paul Goldschmidt's launch angle this year (16.5°) is significantly higher than his 12.8° mark last season. Paul Goldschmidt has recorded a .338 BABIP this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. There has been a significant improvement in Giancarlo Stanton's launch angle from last year's 14.3° to 20.8° this season. Posting a .401 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Giancarlo Stanton grades out in the 98th percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Ryan McMahon will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 15.1% to 18.1%. Ryan McMahon's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 47.2% on the season to 61.5% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today. Cody Bellinger pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Robert Seymour will have the handedness advantage against Cam Schlitter in today's matchup. Robert Seymour has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Robert Seymour will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Ha-seong Kim is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Ha-seong Kim will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Ha-seong Kim's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.4%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.249) suggests that Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .230 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jasson Dominguez in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Jasson Dominguez will get to bat from his better side against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Placing in the 96th percentile, Jasson Dominguez sports a .349 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game. Junior Caminero has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 102.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 97-mph.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Cam Schlitter in today's matchup. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Jake Mangum's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks, Jake Mangum's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph recently. With a .325 BABIP this year, Jake Mangum has performed in the 81st percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Tristan Gray will hold the platoon advantage against Cam Schlitter in today's game. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tristan Gray stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Tristan Gray will hold that advantage today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Cam Schlitter throws from, Hunter Feduccia will have the upper hand in today's game. Hunter Feduccia has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP. Hunter Feduccia will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.