MLB Picks

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 field in the game for overall lefty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This contest is forecasted to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt today... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Among every team playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Jorge Soler is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. Jorge Soler's 11.7% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 76th percentile this year.

PNC Park ranks as the #29 field in the game for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The league's 6th-tallest average fence height can be found at PNC Park.. HRs are generally less common at ballparks with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in the league.. Ian Happ will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Chris Sale may get most of the attention atop Atlanta’s rotation, but Bryce Elder has been every bit as dominant in his own right, leaning on a deep five-pitch mix to post a 1.97 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile in Barrel% at Baseball Savant. Elder is set to take on a Boston Red Sox offense that has been virtually non-existent in 2026, sitting 29th in runs per game (3.7) and sporting a .696 OPS on the year. On the other hand, Atlanta’s lineup has swung back to form this season, ranking third in wOBA (.334), wRC+ (112), and trailing only the New York Yankees in team home runs. Take the Braves to make it consecutive wins in Beantown, and I’d play this up to -125.

The projections love the Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup. He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen. Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he leads the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage. He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.

Kansas City does not strikeout much against righties, but Cole’s current profile is less about pure strikeouts and more about limiting damage. That directly attacks Kansas City’s issue: the Royals have a team barrel rate of just 8%. This is an angle we've hit on throughout the series. The Royals' path to scoring is stringing together multiple hits, and the quality of pitchers that New York has thrown out haven't allowed that to happen. This isn’t a huge edge, though, and I’d play to -130.

In addition to the White Sox ranking fifth in wOBA against left-handed starters this season and second in overall xwOBA while averaging 4.9 runs per game in May, the Twins have also won seven of their past nine games with a solid .325 wOBA and an average of 4.4 runs per game. So, with both teams also trending to the Over, I’m anticipating both clubs chipping in more than enough to send this total Over the number.

I'm taking another swing with Jake Burger today in an indoor setting while he’s swinging one of the hotter bats in baseball and draws a favorable matchup. Burger is one of only five MLB hitters currently ranked inside the Top 15 in both slugging and BlastContact% over the last two weeks. He has been raking with four home runs over his last 12 games and owns the eighth-best slugging percentage in baseball during that stretch. He’ll get a crack at Houston starter Mike Burrows, who ranks in the bottom third among MLB starters in HR/FB rate while carrying a low 36% groundball rate. He is producing a lot of fly balls, and those fly balls are getting hit hard. He also isn’t missing bats and has one of the weaker home-run-suppressing bullpens behind him, with one of the highest HR/9 rates in baseball. The fair price on this Burger bomb sits around +480, per the projections at Covers.

With only one side likely to contribute to the total, it's hard to count on too many runs being scored. Ohtani (21.6% K-BB%) should dominate a soft-hitting Rockies lineup (67 wRC+ in the last 20 days), and it's unlikely he's in the lineup himself after getting plunked in the hand on Tuesday.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.